The effects of our demographics developments in age structuresand in particular in the changes of the crowd and the special weighing of two large age groups: 20-64 and 65 or older, examines the latest publication of the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies (demographic aging, working-age population and employees in Greece). Thessaly and Director of IDEM Mr. Byron Kotzamanis.
Mr Kotzamanis examines in particular the future development of 20-64 years (working-age population), its impact on workers’ population and the relationship of workers to 65 years or older, who are taken as “dependent” (although it is not only in part-not all of them).
The expected medium term Significant reduction in the crowd of 20-64 For years, it is mainly due to the shrinkage of intergenerational fertility as those of pre -war generations had averaging 2.2 children in the early post -war decades, those born around 1960, 2 and those who were born around 1985 less than 1.5 children.
This was also reflected in births decreased after 1980, a decrease that has been accelerated over the last fifteen years as the population of women in childhood have declined significantly (a trend that is not expected to stop in the coming decades). This decline in births initially led to a decrease of 0-19 years, following the youth population of productive and reproductive age (20-44 years) and the end of 45-64 years, while the entry of economic immigrants into our country after 1990 simply slowed down 0-64 years.
During the same period, Mr Kotzamanis says, 65 years and older are constantly increasing, an age group from pre -1980s, and at the same time benefited from a significant increase in life expectancy, a result of the significant reduction in mortality after 1950. In the acceleration of demographic aging recorded In the last fifteen years, our immigration balance has also contributed (more exits from entrances to our country) as immigration has been for young people aged 25-45, both Greeks and foreigners who settled or born in Greece for decades.
The discussion and the reflection on this exit, says Mr Kotzamanis, unfortunately focuses on only one of its components -the “brain drain” of Greeks mainly nationals – Although a large part of those who left our country after 2000 They are Greeks and foreigners with relatively low and medium -sized levels, resulting in the gaps recently presented in some areas of economic activity.
The 65 -year -old group, based on Mr Kotzamanis’ analysis, is the only one that will grow in the future (will be more than 1/3 of our country’s residents in the early 2050s against 24% today), while the total population of Greece is expected to be reduced by 20 million to 20 million. This will obviously result from the shrinkage of younger 65 years and in particular their largest section of 20-64 years.
Given the expected significant reduction of 20-64 years (around 1.7 million if the immigration balance is zero in the next twenty-five years) Mr. Kotzamanis raises and answers the following question: It is possible -and under what conditions for the number of employees in this age group to remain in 2050 at the same level as 2025 (4 million). This goal, if put, can be achieved under two terms:
Increasing the particularly low percentage of 20-64 years of employment due to extremely low employment rates both of women in all age groups (We have the largest sexual gap between sexes) as well as both sexes at the ages of 20-29 years and 55-64 years, and II) High unemployment rates. If this percentage progressively increases from 67% today to 82% in 2050, the expected reduction in the crowd of 20-64 years 2050 will be significantly reduced. In particular, even if the 20-64 years are reduced by 1.68 million (from 5.95 to 4.27), the employees of this age group will amount to 2050 to 3.5 million against € 4,015 million in 2025 (-515 mm). In this favorable scenario, there would be 1.1 employees of 20-64 years per old 65+ (3.5/3.15) instead of 1.6 today.
A positive immigration balance in the next twenty -five years of around 700 thousand. A balance of this class (+28 mm/year on average for twenty-five years) that remains much smaller than the one in 1991-2010 (40 mm per year) would reduce the reduction of the total population of 20-64 and would increase employees by 500 thousand. and today) while they corresponded to 1.24 employees of 20-64 years per elderly 65+ (3.90/3.15) against 1.64 today (4,015/2.45 million).
A possible positive immigration balance of this class reports by Mr Kotzamanis, at the same time a positive impact on “demographic”, as a portion of the surplus of entrances to the expenses would consist of young people, not only productive but also reproductive ages (259). They would slow down demographic aging and reducing people At the age of childhood (women aged 25-49 years, it is expected that if the immigration balance is zero, to reduce by 465 mm between 2025 and 2050, ie -28%), affecting positively and births.
Of course, even if this goal is achieved, the current ratio employed with people 65 and over (164 employees per 100 elderly today) will change as in 2050 there will be only 124. This is the most adverse change, notes in the absence of other changes, in the absence of other changes, will have multiple impacts and dictates a series of interventions in a number of fields, aiming not only to alleviate but also the undoing the negative effects of our demographic developments.
Speaking to the Athens -Macedonian News Agency, Mr Kotzamanis stresses, inter alia, that the produced and “captured” wealth of a country to meet its needs in many areas (and not only on pensions that are mainly focused on the public dialogue). Depends on the “quality” of human resources as well as a number of other parameters many of which are mentioned For many years both in the Bank of Greece and the KEPE reports and the reports of all international organizations on the Greek economy.