Conditions of intense uncertainty and economic liquidity is causing the new geopolitical crisiswith the Budget office of the state in Parliament to transmit a danger signal for the course of the Greek economy.
During the presentation of the quarterly report, the head of the GPC, Professor Ioannis Tsoukalaspointed out that Continuing conflict in the Middle East may lead to significant turmoilwith negative effects on Greek exports and private investment.
Himself did not even rule out the possibility of a new inflationary shockespecially if the crisis continues without de -escalation. As he pointed out, increased international uncertainty, coupled with existing fiscal pressure and delays in the implementation of the recovery fund investment, are rising the risk for the Greek economy.
“Inflation remains durable, well above average inflation in the eurozone (1.9%), and amounted to May of 2025 to 3,3%, significantly increased both in relation to May of 2024 (2,4%) as well as in relation to previous month (2,6%). The upward pressures are resulted in by the services, including housing, and the decline in food inflation was interrupted. Efforts to strengthen competition as well as the detection and preventing pricing in oligopolistic markets should be intensified, ”according to Mr. Pot.
The liquidity that characterizes the international economic environment has led the GPKB to lower to the 2,2% him ‘Bar’ of growth for the 2025with a prediction range of between 2.1% and 2.3%.
“Due to the rapidly worsening international economic environment, the office revised slightly the basic estimate of the GDP growth rate of 2025 to 2.2% (from 2.3% to March 2025 report),” the report said, according to which “the revision is due to the revision of two sources. trust. On the one hand, the continued rhetoric of imposing duties and on the other the recent ignition in the Middle East. “
The GPKB characteristically notes that:
- In 2025 it evolves over a year of unusually high geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Developments in recent months, and in particular the new unpredictable conflict in the Middle East, lead to global geopolitical instability and cause conditions of major uncertainty by creating upheaval in global financial markets. The first signs of deceleration of large economies have made their appearance. Within this international environment of significant challenges and risks, the Greek economy maintains its upward trend with the good fiscal performance and confidence of international investors. Fiscal performance and public debt de -escalation have led the Standard and Poor’s evaluation house to a new upgrade of the country’s debtor within the investment grade. Improving international competitiveness through investment, innovation and productivity of the economy is the safest way to converge on the country’s citizens’ income with the European average and maintain strong growth after 2026. In order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to intensify the efforts to intensify the efficiency To attract investment, and guided by fiscal prudence, the use of the fiscal space to boost the country’s productive dynamics.
- The gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.2% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2024 (ELSTAT temporary data), while the size of the eurozone is 1.5%. This performance was the increase in private consumption (1.9%) still resistant, the increase in exports of goods and services (2.2% in total, -0.2% for services and 1.7% for goods) and increased public consumption (0.7%). Fixed capital investments decreased by 3.2%, reflecting the reduction of investment costs in houses and constructions. The contribution of imports of goods and services (an increase of 2.4% in total) was negative.
- Regarding fiscal performance, the official budgetary outcome of the General Government for 2024 in ESA terms stood at EUR 3,181 million, or 1.3% of GDP. The primary result stood at € 11,401 million, or 4.8% of GDP. For the four months of January – April 2025, the consolidated primary result of a general government with adjustments records a surplus of € 4,934 million, increased by EUR 1,575 million compared to the corresponding four months of 2024. In the four months of January -April 2024. Tax revenue shows a significant increase, with the main sources being a tax of EUR 1,352 million, and taxes on goods and services by EUR 737 million (of which VAT by EUR 708 million).
- The state budget expenditure is a decrease of EUR 1,579 million compared to the January-April-April of 2024, which is attributed to the reduction of RIP spending and the EUR 1,140 million and interest by € 167 million, while primary expenditure decreased by EUR 27 million.
- A remarkable event is the recent increase in European presence in the Greek commercial banking system. This development contributes to the degree of extroversion of the banking system, enhancing the prospects for attracting foreign capital and increasing cross -border banking partnerships in the future. It is also an indication of improving the degree of confidence of the European banking community in the Greek economy, which is also linked to the acquisition of the investment level.
- Regarding the progress of the TAA’s investment plans, there are delays which, if not exceeded, may have a negative impact on both the growth rate and the time of recovery of the capital stock of the economy.