Faced with three scenarios is the Greek economy starting with politics and fiscal crisis to France.
And three scenarios (voting for a baire austerity pack, ECB support, ECB support) these are related to Achilles heel of the Greek economy that is not from the high public debt. However, despite the high level of Greek government debt, officials in the financial staff with which newsit.gr came into contact, are reassuring about the impact of the French fiscal crisis depending on political developments in Paris.
More specifically, the scenarios eThe French crisis and their impact on the Greek economy are as follows:
Scenario 1: Austerity Package Vote
The effects of the French crisis will be zero For the Greek and wider European economy, if the Bayrou government receives a vote of confidence (first and difficult to implement, scenario) by the French Parliament on September 8, 2025 and so it can Pass the austerity package he has announced, with any variants.
Scenario 2: Non -voting austerity package, jumping on bond yields and ECB intervention
However, if the Bairou government falls (second and quite possible scenario) and the political uncertainty in France is deepened (notably if Macron is calling for new early elections), then the same sources report that the same sources say that the European Central Bankseeing a further ejecting of the yields of French government bonds (ie the cost of borrowing), due to the enormous size of the French economy, will take actions to prevent her bankruptcy.
In particular, The ECB could immediately reduce lending rates and buy French government bonds.
This is said, the same executives of the financial staff would be … positive for the Greek economy, as Further reduction in ECB interest rates would lead to an even greater reduction in borrowing costs (with positive implications on budget) and the Greek State and therefore in braking any external pressure pressure on Greek government debt.
In this case, of course, France would be forced to take extraordinary austerity measures -mostly strictly than those proposed by Bairou now -which would push French and perhaps the European economy in the recession.
In this respect, the Greek economy would also be harmed, but in a benchmark for the state budget, though they would enter In question, its surpluses, along with the new packages of permanent benefits.
Scenario 3: Non -voting austerity package, bond yields and non -ECB support
If, however, There is no support from the ECB (Third scenario) -which is considered extremely difficult to occur in the event of an uncontrolled growth course of French bond yields -and thus practically “prohibitive” any access of countries -members of the eurozone (together with Greece) in international markets, then Greece can repay its obligations to international lenders for 3 or 3.5 years thanks to the 43 billion “pillow”. euro at its disposal, thus meeting its financial needs each year (13 billion euros).
But obviously in this extreme case that would be particularly negative for the eurozone, Greece’s fiscal strengths will be extremely compressed and its potential not only bring new permanent support measures, but also to maintain existing taxation and social spending systems at the existing level …