In a phase of intense volatility and without a clear direction the global marketsas the international environment is dominated by insecurity factors, with first and foremost war of war dictatorial by Donald Trump.
The movements of the US president in the commercial and geopolitical field, with the level of the barrage of announcements and letters for new duties and the forthcoming new sanctions in Russia, are further shocking international markets, which were forced to operate in any way, Energy uncertainty.
Against the most optimistic, this treaty does not seem to be transient. As Hugh Johnson, a leading economist and investment analyst in the US, warns, investors must be prepared for a period without clear upward or downward trends, a “neutral, atonement” era, as he describes it. This scenario is exacerbated by a return to a period of intense protectionism such as that of 2018–2019, when President Trump imposed extensive tariffs on raw materials and products from Canada, China and Brazil.
Conditions are similar today, with Donald Trump announcing a 35% new tariffs in Canada and 50% in Brazil’s copper imports, while planning to make a “big announcement” for Russia, which is widely expected to concern potential announcement and more stricter prices.
Oil in the center of volatility
In this context, oil prices recovered on Friday (11.07.2025), after losses of more than 2% the day before. Brent was up 0.64%to $ 69.08 per barrel, while US crude rose 0.78%to $ 67.09. The recovery came in response to the possibility of West’s stricter sanctions against Russia, one of the world’s leading oil producers.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions are well held with the growing activity of Houthi in the Red Sea, while in August, the largest mission of Saudi oil in China is expected in August for the last two years, which is 51 million barrels.
However, the upward dynamics of oil price also faces opposite forces as OPEC+ announced production of 548,000 barrels per day for August, with a possibility of a new increase in September. Ing analysts estimate that the excessive offer appeared for the fourth quarter of 2025 will lead to a downward pressure pressure.
The long -term climate is also obscured by the new OPEC estimates, according to which world -wide oil demand will reach 106.3 million barrels per day in 2026, lower than last year’s provision for 108 million.
In this unstable context, analyst Hugh Johnson provides for US GDP slowing 1.3% -1.4% for 2025 (from 2.8% in 2024), with consumption already showing bending trends. Indicatively, the GDP increase for the second quarter of 2025 is only 1.8% on a year, while for the first quarter of 2026 there is a further decline to 0.5%.
Duties increase inflationary pressures
In addition, duties are expected to further enhance inflation, as it is estimated that imports on imports will be passed on consumer prices, causing pressure on subsequent inflation indicators. Analysts estimate that the monthly percentage can increase by 0.3%, further burdening already pressured US households and limiting the potential of private consumption.
Consequently, greater inflationary pressures also mean more ‘careful’ monetary policy, with further consequences for growth rates.
According to Johnson, the “common thread” in all of the above developments leads to an environment that is “difficult for forecasts and dangerous to hasty moves”. He estimates that the US stock market is already about 3.5% overpriced and that the next quarters will be corrected, perhaps by the end of 2025…