An imposing military parade and a high -level session at China They came to dramatically remind that European security will never be as before.
This week, the Russian president Vladimir Putin She sent a clear message to Ukraine and her European allies: Moscow can continue its course, as it has strong and determined allies on its side.
The Russian leader stood by – next to China events with Chinese leader Xi Jing, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Monty, Iranian President Massoud Pezkian and Kim Jong Un of North Korea.
More than three years after Putin’s initial perception that the occupation of the smaller and weaker Ukraine would be fast and perhaps easy, Russia could not continue the war without the financial support of China and India, weapons coming from Iran and, to a lesser extent, the provision of staff from North Korea.
But the messages from both the Summit and the Military Parade Hosted by China this week surpass the war in Ukraine.
The leaders who gathered in China may not agree on everything. Some may not even like each other. But they see the opportunity of their lives to end Western sovereignty on the international scene, he notes in his analysis CNN. And Europe is worried that it can be targeted.
The events provided a strong visual reminder of why Europe should review its security. It has passed in recent years trying to isolate the Russian leader and deprive its economy, while at the same time realizing that the US may no longer be the ally it can always turn.
And yet, there was Putin, along with some of the most powerful men in the world, confirming their friendship.
“Russia is trying to show that, although it has been isolated from the Western world, it still has partners and allies that are economically powerful countries … And this isolation does not mean that the Russian economy will collapse or that Russia will not be able to maintain its war efforts,” CNN told CNN. ” Natia Seskuria, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi).
The international class formed after the end of the Cold War is now in danger of collapsing.
The US is receding from the international stage under the chairmanship of Donald Trump and the agenda of “America First”. At the same time, Europe is struggling with its own problems, such as rising far -right nationalism and economic pressure.
Russia, China, India and other countries that did not want a world under US hegemony suddenly saw a first -class opportunity.
“The established sovereignty of the Western Alliance in international affairs is receding, and they see the opportunity to start seriously remodeling the international system,” he told CNN John Lau, head of foreign policy at Think Tank New Eurasian Strategies Center.
This week clearly revealed these ambitions to everyone, even to Trump.
Trump received the message. “Please give my warm greetings to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against the United States of America,” he wrote in a message to Si.
Terms and conditions
Despite the handshakes and smiles, China and India’s attitude towards the Russian war in Ukraine is mainly determined by pragmatism, according to analysts.
Both countries consistently maintain an attitude of neutrality in the war, while at the same time boosting it through financial support to Russia.
China and India did not hide their joy when Ukraine’s Western allies imposed sanctions on Russian oil, an important source of revenue for Moscow.
They get cheaper energy supplies, but experts say the relationship is not just about money.
While neither China nor India are willing to get involved in a direct confrontation with the West, both are glad that Russia is promoting an anti -Western agenda.
Beijing and New Delhi are now the two largest buyers of Russian oil and coal, with China also being the second largest buyer of Russian gas and oil producers.
Support transcends oil. According to the US Treasury, Chinese and Indian companies supply Russia with dual -use technologies, or accessories that can be used for both political and military purposes, such as chips or telecommunications equipment that Russia cannot obtain elsewhere for western sanctions.
“It is enough to look at the number of Chinese components in Russian drones landing in Ukraine to understand that China is a very important supplier,” Lau added.
At the same time, Ukraine and its European allies are not willing to fully ignore India and China, because they know that if one can put real pressure on Putin to end the war – in the absence of more stringent actions than Trump – the new one is likely to be.
North Korea and Iran, meanwhile, stand firmly on the side of Russia. Already under sanctions and isolation from the West due to their nuclear programs and other activities, they do not have much to lose.
Iran was particularly useful in Moscow in the first months of the war, providing know -how on how to reduce the impact of sanctions. In addition, it offered valuable military material, including drone shahad, a weapon that has significantly changed the way Russia is fighting in Ukraine.
The two countries still signed a new cooperation agreement and started joint military exercises.
However, Tehran has learned in the difficult way that every alliance with Russia has clear boundaries.
Putin did not help Iran when he was attacked by Israel and later by the US in the summer. And in addition to providing a safe passage to former Syrian President Bashar al -Assad, a former basic ally of Russia and Iran, Putin did not intervene when the Assad regime was overthrown in December.
For the secluded North Korea, the relationship with Russia is a transaction. Russia needs men, and North Korea is probably the only country that can politically send its own population to fight in a war with a very high number of victims for the Russian side.
Developments in China were not sudden. Europe may have been taken aback by Russia’s complete invasion of Ukraine, but since then the security map has changed dramatically.
Things that would be unthinkable a few years ago – such as the change of Germany’s constitution to increase defense spending or the integration of traditionally neutral Swedish and Finland in NATO – are now happening due to the geopolitical changes that emerged this week.
Despite Putin’s friendly attitude towards Si and Monty, who caused a nuisance to many European capitals, the three leaders were found united thanks to a combination of necessity, economic realism and opportunity, according to analysts.
“It is a very functional relationship that is not based on strong mutual sympathy. It is an alliance Interests can change, and much can happen in the next 3.5 years of the Trump Presidency.