The dangers of a crisis in the market oil Due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, its president underlined BundesbankJoachim Nagel, demanding that monetary policy not relax in the eurozone, despite the fact that inflation has returned to 2%.
The consequences of the attacks between the two countries, which intensified over the weekend, “remain uncertain” while a prolonged conflict “could cause a strong rise in oil” and “overturn our forecasts” on inflation and growth, the Bundesbank said.
Oil prices raised a limited rise early this morning, after up to 13% on Friday, when the first Israeli blows against Iran had taken place.
Around 10:20 (Greek time), the price of US WTI barrel rose 1.15%to $ 73.82, and that of the North Sea Brent barrel increased by $ 0.99%to $ 74.97.
In May, inflation in the eurozone fell to 1.9%, according to Eurostat’s preliminary estimation, which confirms the ECB’s decision to reduce its on -site on -time on -one year in June.
Eurostat also reduced its inflation forecasts in 2025 (2.0%) and 2026 (1.6%), precisely due to the recession of energy prices and euro reinforcement.
However, the increased risks that are in the event of constant escalation in the Middle East and are added to commercial tensions with the United States, which have not yet been settled, make it “imperative” for the European Central Bank to remain “flexible” without a “new” decline in a new reduction in known for his Orthodox monetary policy.
In June, the ECB reinstated its main depository to 2.0%, a level that is no longer considered restrictive, having culminated in 2023 at 4.0% to regenerate prices after Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Although ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that every decision on interest rates will be taken “meeting the meeting”, depending on the evolution of the data, has also been reported at the “end of a monetary cycle” and experts are waiting for a cessation of interest rates at the next meeting.