‘Fire’ in Brussels is put on new violations of Russia, in Poland and Estoniawith NATO measuring threats and the EU the financial burden.
It is recalled that In Poland, yesterday (20.9.25) the sirens sounded when Warsaw took a hasty fighter in response to the mass Russian attack on Ukraine. Yesterday (19.9.25) was made Violation of Estonia Airplane by three Russian MIG-31something that forced Tallinn to activate Article 4 and to request urgent consultations with the allies. Moscow seems to be trying to weigh the West’s reactions (EU, US, NATO), Using tactics that do not lead directly to military conflict But they are causing permanent concern in Eastern European countries.
This, it makes double challenge for Eastern European countries, military and financial A typical example is Poland, where its defense spending already exceed 4.7% of GDP paying a disproportionate price to keep NATO shield.
In this context, The EU Extraordinary Council of EU members on October 1, 2025 expected to focus on Eastern Wing Mechanismsfrom common equipment to financial support. The same issues are expected to be concerned with Session of the European Political Community on October 2nd 2025confirming that the security and economy of the region are now at the heart of European decisions.
What does Article 4 mean
Article 4 of the North Atlantic Pact provides consultations between members as long as he considers that the its territorial integrity, its political independence or its safety are threatened. Has just been activated seven times Since the establishment of the Alliance, with the recent Estonian initiative added as the eighth.
Article 4 does not necessarily mean military response, but acts as a political warning. Article 4 is often considered ‘bell“, Heralded possible developments.
In contrast to Article 5, which provides for collective defense in the event of an attack on a Member State, Article 4 remains at the level of political consultation. However, it is particularly important, as it opens the debate throughout the alliance.
The asymmetric cost and the Russian threat
Russia’s challenges – from drones that violate Poland’s airspace to the fighters appearing in Estonia – has low costs for Moscow, but imposes enormous economic sacrifices for these neighboring countries.
Poland to spend about 4.7% of GDP her 2025 for defense, almost twice the average of NATO. In the budget of 2026 a new increase in 4.8% of GDPmaking the country the leader of European defense spending.
The trend is not limited to Poland. Lithuania has announced that it wants to even reach the 6% of GDP In the following years – a number reminiscent of large military economies and not small Baltic states – while other Baltic states (Estonia) are gearing around 3% of GDP.
The Russian threat is translated into unprecedented sacrifices. Defense is now becoming a top national priority, at a cost that will be borne by not only state budgets but also the societies of these countries.
Poland: billion contract for radar – East Shield Plan
Poland recently signed a height contract 5.8 billion Zlotti ($ 1.6 billion or 1.36 billion euros) With the PGZ-Narew consortium for 46 new radar, as part of the Narew Air Defense Program to strengthen its airspace.
At the same time, he invests in the grand plan «East Shield»which is scheduled to be implemented in 2024-28 aimed at shielding the eastern and northern border of Poland. The program combines natural fortifications with modern surveillance systems, such as sensor towers, radar, thermal imaging and acoustic systems, as well as drones that will utilize these systems for monitoring and detecting movements.
This system will enhance the Ability to effectively combat unmanned aircraftwhich have become increasingly widespread in recent conflicts, as evidenced by the war in Ukraine.
The cost of deterrence
The activation of Article 4 It shows that Russian movements do not go unnoticed. But the biggest battle may not be in the air above the Baltic, but to the budgets of the countries feeling closer to the danger and who can lift the weight of deterrence.
For Russia, violations are low -cost and mainly pressure movements, while for Poland and the Baltic, the answer costs billions. If This dynamic continues, the conflict will be judged by the resilience of economies.