May direct trade relations of Greece – USA be limited, but a wave dictatorial From Washington to the European Union (EU) it brings indirect risks to the Greek economy, with Bank of Greece (BoG) to focus on the country’s most valuable export sector: shipping.
In the framework of the Monetary Policy report 2025, the BoG estimates that shipping contributes 40% of Greece’s total revenue from services, making the industry crucial for the external balance. With this dependency, any international disturbance in trade, such as the war on duties launched by Donald Trump, can translate into huge loss of revenue, even without immediate Greek involvement in the measures.
The bank warns that the slowdown in world trade – as a result of the growing geo -economic tension and US duties – may severely affect marine transport, both at the level of volume and revenue. The image becomes even more complex, taking into account the new US policies that influence international navigation, such as additional charges and controls on Chinese -made ships approaching American ports or even the geopolitical upheaval raging in the Red Sea.
The impact of such moves, if generalized, can disrupt routes, increase operating costs and lead to loss of competitiveness for shipowners operating on global lines.
The BoG’s analysis includes three scenarios in relation to the trade war. In the unfavorable scenario, the Greek economy may see GDP decrease by 0.5 percentage points, investments will dive 4.5 points, and employment is projected to retreat by 0.4 points. On the contrary, the mild scenario predicts slightly positive effects, mainly by enhancing net exports.
However, as the bank warns, it is not the duties themselves that frightened, but the uncertainty they trigger: investors that freeze plans, reorganized trade flows, maritime strategies that are adjusted within a “blurry” environment.
With Greek shipping being a pillar for extroversion and the current account balance, the Bank of Greece recalls that the country is not immune to the turmoil of the international system.
What are the consequences for Greek trade
Although the immediate impact of the US duties imposed on the European Union are limited to Greek external trade, the indirect impact can prove to be much more serious.
The value of Greek exports of goods to the US is only 4.8% of the total and accounts for about 1% of GDP. The basic products exported are foods (cheese, fruits, olive oil), fuel and industrial products. At the same time, the total balance of goods and services with the US is surplus, thanks to services from services, and amounted to 1.2% of GDP in 2024.
But the most important threats are found in indirect channels, mainly through the eurozone. About 42% of Greek exports of goods and 34% of exports are directed to eurozone countries, resulting in any recession there hitting Greek export activity immediately. The decline in external demand in the EU, especially for intermediate products and tourism, is expected to burden Greece.
Finally, the Greek -USA balance balance worsened in 2024, showing a deficit of € 101 million against a surplus of € 128 million in 2023. The burden mainly came from the increase in fuel imports – mainly gas – from the US.
Although the impacts at first do not cause “shock”, the Greek economy remains exposed to the secondary consequences of world commercial protectionism – especially through shipping and tourism, which accounts for 40% of the country’s total exports. If the restructuring of commercial flows continues or escalates, these effects may intensify.