If the banks They want to maintain their profitability in the coming years, given the reduction of interest rates by the ECB, as it is significantly based on interest rates on interest rates loansshould mainly increase their loan portfolio.
Given the reduction in interest rates, the boost of credit expansion through lending is the key lever for a viable and strong profitability of banks.
The big Greek banks (Alpha Bank, Eurobank, National Bank and Piraeus Bank) announced a total of net profits of 2.4 billion euros for the first half of 2025, increasing a 4% increase over last year.
In the first half of 2025, the four systemic banks increased their up -to -date loans and, by extension, their revenue basis by approximately € 7.7 billion.
The net credit expansion to Eurobank stood at 2.2 billion (+11%), the National at € 1.5 billion (+12%), in Piraeus at 2.2 billion euros (+15%) and in Alpha Bank at € 1.8 billion (+14%).
The Greek bankers, as they have stated at the end of 2024 in their meetings with major international investment firms, were aimed at new loans of at least 10 billion euros in 2025. However, based on the first half, systemic banks’ administrations have upgraded the 13 -euro targets.
Greek banks benefit significantly from the Greek recovery narrative and the increase in corporate lending, according to estimates of international houses.
In its estimates for Greek banks, S&P predicts that Greece’s real GDP will increase by 2.4% on average in the period 2024-2027, over-the-day eurozone countries.
The ongoing absorption of EU support funds will boost demand for new corporate loans. S&P expects bank loan portfolios increase by 4% in 2025.
Upgrading the public credit rating also upgrades the debt of banks, which can be borrowed at lower interest rates.
According to the DBRS rating house, Greek banks’ revenue structures are significantly based on net interest revenue (NII), so the continued reduction in interest rates will negatively affect their revenue. However, new loan flows, which appear to be stronger in Greece than the rest of Europe, will contribute to the partial offsetting of the negative effect on NII from the lowest interest rates.
The Bank of Greece
In April 2025, the annual rate of funding for non -financial enterprises (MSE) stood at the highest level (17.2%) observed since the beginning of 2009, according to the BoG.
The provision of business credits were assisted by the co -financing and guarantee programs, as well as the bank loans of co -financing of investment projects that are part of the RRF (RRF) mechanism.
The expected rise of GDP in 2025 is estimated to support the increase in bank credit to the MSE. In addition, the lowest level of interest rates, thanks to the transfer of Eurosystem interest rates on bank interest rates, will have positive effects on credit expansion. The absorption of loan resources under the RRF is expected to be higher in 2025-2026, helping to boost funding with the MSE, as (a) loans have already been contracted, which is to be disbursed, and (b) new contract signatures are expected, in view of its fee. Finally, the granting of new credits by banks will help the programs of the European Investment Bank Group, which are part of the NSRF (2021-2027), as well as the programs of the Hellenic Development Bank.
To 2024
The rate of credit expansion was moved in 2024 over the initial expectations.
In 2024, the four systemic banks increased their up -to -date loans and, by extension, their revenue basis by approximately € 13.8 billion, which is the strongest performance of the last 15 years, compared to $ 5.8 billion in 2023.
In 2024 the net credit expansion at Eurobank stood at 3.9 billion from 1.8 billion. In 2023, in the National at € 3.1 billion from € 1.3 billion, in Piraeus at € 3.6 billion from € 1.5 billion and Alpha Bank at € 3.2 billion from € 1.2 billion in 2023.
Credit expansion was 9% for 2024 and, according to BoG data, it was raised by about 9% throughout the private sector, by 13.8% in non -financial enterprises, by 0.7% in terms of freelance farmers and individual businesses and 6.3% in terms of consumer loans to individuals. On the contrary, the credit expansion remained negative in terms of mortgage loans by 2.6%.
Fifteen -year record for deposits
Greek banks are mainly funded through deposits. Customer deposits accounted for about 89% of total funding at the end of 2024 and came mainly from retail customers, who are usually stable.
It is noted that the loan ratio to deposits was already 67.2%at the end of 2024, demonstrating the existence of surplus in deposits and plenty of liquidity.
At the highest level of the last 15 years, private sector deposits increased in June, after the 5 billion euro “jump” recorded compared to May.
They reached 204.5 billion euros, according to the latest BoG data, the highest level since January 2011. During the crisis, total deposits had fallen up to $ 120 billion.
Source: RES-EIA