A painful 15 -year -old brokerage cycle closes the market of the Athens Stock Exchange having returned to May 2010, over 1,800 units. Capitalization exceeded 124 billion euros, returning… in early September 2008 when General index They negotiated at 3,131 points, recovering to levels recorded before the outbreak of the great economic crisis.
The market, as all shows its course so far, will record the 7th consecutive month this month, a phenomenon that was last recorded in January – July 2019 when it had seven consecutive months of positive yields and cumulative profits of 46.7%. In the period November 2024 until the meeting of Thursday 22 May 2025 earns 32.22%. The General Index exceeded 1,700 points in late April, as a significant overrun, as they were at these levels shortly before the investment level loss.
Greece lost the investment level on April 27, 2010, when Standard & Poor’s became the first house to downgrade it to “Junk”. The General Index wrote 1,696.68 on that day, with a 6%drop. Of course, there was a continuous fall of the 2,327 units in the early 2010 market, as the spectrum of rescue of Greece was increasingly open until April 23 for Greece’s appeal to the International Monetary Fund.
According to valid technical analysts, the upward move that has started at 1,320 units seems to have quite a few fuel with it, which are comfortable at the doorstep of the 2,000 -unit psychological threshold, with the next target and the levels of 2,320 units, levels from which the market was in early 2010 (2010).
Market upward traffic finds supports:
- To the fact that the Greek stock market, despite the rise, remains attractiveif one sees the market capitalization relationship in relation to the gross domestic product (GDP) of Greece. Based on GDP estimate at € 240 billion in 2025, capitalization of the stock market, which amounts to € 125 billion, corresponds to a little higher than 50% of GDP. In a recent analysis, JP Morgan points out that the ratio of medium yields and low risk justifies the Overweight setting up for the Greek Stock Exchange. Positive data also highlights the refunds from banks (with 10% dividend yields and equity reproductions) and 2% growth. In addition, banks have a 20% discount based on P/E, against European banks.
- To Strong Development Story of the Greek Economy. The Greek economy has at least for the coming years a “free corridor” of growth in fiscal stability under the condition that there will be no serious escalation in the Middle East or other unpredictable negative developments in the troubled geopolitical environment. The Greek economy will also be in 2025, one of the first in growth in the EU. The direction of funds by the US and not only observed to Europe is favored by ATHEX as it has higher growth than the eurozone average.
- To fiscal stability: The course of the budgetary figures is on track of over -performance supporting the scenario of a positive review of the prospects of the Greek economy.
- To Dynamics created by recovery of investment grade and mainly in the bond market. Greek bonds are highly resistant when a worldwide “sell -off” in the bond markets is manifested. JP Morgan recently renewed the “vote” of confidence in Greek bonds, which it places in its top choices internationally thanks to Greece’s powerful macroeconomic and fiscal prospects as well as the highly successful management of Greek debt and recommends investors to maintain an overweight attitude.
- OR High profitability of listed companies supports shares valuations. The image of the profitability of the domestic listed people brought back the performance of the companies and their potential value based on the up -to -date fundamental. The first writing sample of companies published in the first quarter of 2025 is satisfactory compared to converging market estimates, but shows that 2025 will be a year of profitability.
- The Records expected to be recorded this year in the dividend policy of listed companies, with the average dividend performance set at 5%. The Stock Exchange will share this year … gifts that will range at € 5 billion, dividends, which are the highest since 2007, before the big financial crisis began, when they were € 5.42 billion. But then there were much more listed companies on the Stock Exchange.
The external risks
The risks to the Greek economy and the domestic stock market are external as:
- Geopolitical tensions due to warfare in Ukraine and the Middle East.
- Stagnation and / or slowing European economies and especially German. Much of the exports of goods and services of the Greek economy are heading to European economies, and a significant part of them are absorbed by the German economy. By extension stagnation or even worse recession in the German economy will negatively affect the Greek economy.
- Possible resuscitation of the World Trade War, although Greece is less exposed to the dangers of world trade, according to analysts.