Donald Trump’s hard line, calling for “unconditional” tradition from Tehran, and Benjamin Netanyahu’s warnings for military intervention that could overturn the theocratic regime, are stepping up the concerns for the next day at the next day Iran. Ends the era of the supreme religious leader Ali;
Each assessment is still early on the evolution of society and the economy If Iran’s religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei collapses. He, however, passed the counterattack with his statements, after the Trump’s ultimatum to Iran for “unconditional delivery”.
He said that “Americans should be aware that Iran will not be surrendered and that any US military intervention will cause irreparable damage” by clarifying that “US involvement is an indication of Israel’s weakness.”
With what the next day in Iran would be after a possible succession to Khamenei, he deals with analysis of Guardian. Would another religious leader take over or is it time for a secular?
However, some Western leaders, although warmly welcomed the idea of overthrowing Iran’s top leader, has not been prepared for the next day if this happens, the report notes. In simple terms there is no plan for such a possibility.
At the G7 Summit in Canada, differences within Europe about how wise a regime change in Iran would not be more apparent.
The French President Emmanuel Macron He warned against the overthrow of a government “when you have no idea what will happen”. Although he stressed that he did not support the Iranian regime, he emphasized that it was up to the Iranian people to decide who would rule him.
“The biggest mistake today is to try, by military means, to bring status change to Iran, because that will lead to chaos.
One believes that what happened in 2003 in Iraq [με τον Σαντάμ Χουσεΐν] Was it a good idea? Or that what happened in 2011 in Libya [με τον Καντάφι] succeeded? “, He said characteristically.
On the contrary, German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz, He said: “We are facing a terrorist regime, both domestically and abroad. It would be good if this regime was over. “
Although he admitted that status changes do not always lead to the desired results, he referred to the Syria as “Positive example”.
“In Syria, the Assad regime has been overthrown and there is a new government since then trying to bring peace to the country,” he said. He failed to say, of course, that this change of government was preceded by nine years of bloodthirsty civil war.
As his expert team had warned Tony Blair for Iraq in 2002 – Ignored warnings – the overthrow of authoritarian regimes opens the door to unpredictable and oppressed forces.
In the case of Iran – a country with huge ethnic, religious, political and socio -economic diversity – there has not been No plan from no western country for the possible collapse of the regime.
The risk of dismantling in smaller states is real.
Iran’s internal diversity causes fears for secessionist tendencies – As the Persians make up only 50% of the population, with the rest including Azeris, Turkish, Kurds, Arabs, Baluchi, Jews, Armenians and Assyrians.
If there is an internal collapse, Baku’s regime in Azerbaijan and Kurdish organizations may try to distract ethnic territories from Iranian territory.
In fact, the Jerusalem Post He has called on Benjamin Netanyahu to aim for a federalized form of Iran, believing that the country cannot be reformed.
Iran does not have an organized interior ‘Status on waiting’. Political parties are essentially banned and the most important voices are either in prison, in exile, or they are marginalized.
The “Woman – Life – Freedom” movement of 2022, however powerful it was culturally, did not leave behind it institutional or leading legacy. The weakening of his support network showed how quickly the internal disagreements can prevail.
OR nature of the regime in Iran that could succeed the existing depends on whether there will be revolution or transitional process. If there is a pure military defeat, the internal reactions may lead to the dismissal of the Supreme Leader, Ali Hameni, by the army itself or through a popular uprising.
Many top executives of the Revolution Guards have already been killed. However, there may be younger officers, critical of corruption and penetration of Mosad, who lead internal coup to prevent a general uprising.
Such a regime may be more secular and de -ideological – but not necessarily more liberal.
Transition or chaos after the change of regime in Iran – The role of the exiled prince
In case of collapse, many believe that the Reza Pachlavi, Exiled Son of Last Shahhe will try to triumphantly return as the head of a democratic transition. He has already appeared in American media saying that the regime is collapsing, setting himself available for any next day in Tehran.
“We see a leader hiding as a rat in a shelter, while many senior officials leave the country,” said.
‘I have a plan for the future of Iran’, added.
In a statement, Reza Pachlavi also said: “Do not be afraid of the day after the fall of the Islamic Republic. Iran is not going to roll in civil war or instability, “he promised.
However, he is strongly criticized for his distance from modern Iranian society, which abandoned at the age of 17, as well as For his close relationship with Israel and his rhetoric while civilians are killed by Israeli attacks.
“We have a plan for the future of Iran and its flourishing. We have already been prepared for the first 100 days after the fall, for the transitional period, and for the establishment of a national and democratic government by the Iranian people and the Iranian people, “Reza Pahlavi added in his statement.
He was heard this week: “We see a leader hiding as a rat in a shelter, while many senior executives escape Iran. I have taken over the leadership of this campaign at the request of my compatriots. I have a plan for the future and the recovery of Iran. “
Rumors make a speech about a Emergency government, with two of Iran’s most experienced leaders – former President Hassan Rouhani and former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif – forming a twin, perhaps with former House Speaker Ali Laridzani.
Another signal of change would be the removal of home restraint Former President Mir Hossein Moussavi and his wife, Zachra Rahnvardheld since 2011.
Rhhanavard condemned Netanyahu’s actions by saying that it was “criminal and aggressive action under every international rule”, but also warned the Iranian regime: “I warn leaders not to let this war become uncontrollable and destroy it.”
Finally, if repressive mechanisms collapse, Everything will depend on the Iranians themselves. Many hate the regime – for many reasons – but they hate what Israel does.
The Iranians say they feel trapped in a war that is not theirs, waiting for the deaths of those who have only given them silence, torture and poverty.
But they also say they have seen what Israel did in Gaza – And they don’t want Tehran to become a new gauze.
Pictures of parents carrying bloodthirsty infants through ruins and debris are already enough. And maybe now, while the regime is shaken, the uncertainty about what will happen to be his best opportunity for survival, concludes the Guardian’s analysis.