The post-Loser The season is just around the gates. One day after US blows to nuclear program premises in Iranthe situation in the Middle East seems to be completely out of control. At the same time, the alarm in the global economy has meant for good, due to the possible closure of the Ormuz Straits on the part of Tehran.
It seems to be the days of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from the position of Iran’s top leader, since after US blows, Iran is thinking of the country without the one who has ruled it for over 35 years as a supreme leader.
US attacks against nuclear facilities in Iran have escalated an already intense and increasingly public debate in Tehran: What will be the future of the country and if the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei must remain in power.
This at least reported in the magazine The Atlantic Two sources involved in the relevant consultations. The plan to replace the loser, He has been hiding in an underground shelter lately, according to the report, a group of businessmen, military and civilian actors, relatives and high -ranking clergymen is reported.
Institutionally, the Assembly of Iran’s expertsconsisting of 88 senior clergymen, It is the only instrument that can dismiss it. However, in the present context with Iran being carried by air attacks, such a vote is considered unlikely, the report said.
The scenario discussed is less institutional: An informal abandoned power, with Hameni being pressured from the inside to transfer the essential power to a provisional committee of governance.
The plan provides for the establishment of a leadership transitional council, which will consist of high -level persons whose He will negotiate with the United States to end Israeli attacks.
Those involved are afraid that they may be revealed, but have decided to speak, hoping that publicizing their plans will help them appreciate the reactions of the region and the international community.
Former Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, Although not currently involved, it is reportedly examined for a central role in the temporary leadership.
At the same time, military executives associated with the effort are alleged to have contacted officials from an important Gulf state, seeking support for a change in Iran’s leadership and direction.
“Ours is just one of the many ideas,” said one of the people who participated in the conversations. “Tehran is full of such rumors. They even discuss Europeans about Iran’s future. Everyone knows that the days of Khamenei are measured. Even if it remains formally in its place, it will no longer have real power. “
This was said before the US bombings. After the explosions on the facilities of Natanzhis Fordo and her Isfahanone of the stakeholders stated that “The chances of being settled by Hameni have increased – but we are all afraid. Things can also evolve completely opposite. “
The magnitude of the destruction of the attacks remains the subject of intense conflict. The US claims that the company was crowned with complete success – with Donald Trump declaring that it has “disappeared” the Iranian nuclear program. On the other hand, Iran claims that it had already transported the crucial nuclear material and that the bombings did not destroy significant points.
Whatever the case, the climate in the circles of Iranian power seems to have been divided. Some of the protagonists of the “replacement plans” want an agreement with Trump – even if it means the removal of Khamenei. Others, however, call for a counterattack, believing that non -reaction will mean more attacks.
“Iran will answer and the war will expand, even temporarily”said Mostafa Najafy, a security expert in Tehran.
The day before the attacks, Najafy had estimated that Iran had already been prepared for war involvement with the US, with a significant number of drones and missiles ready to use. Despite the Israeli attacks, he had said, Tehran avoided involved pro -Heavenly paramilitary groups against the US – something that may change, now that Iranian territory was hit.
However, Iran’s choices are limited. Hezbollah in Lebanon is weakened and does not appear to be in war for Iran’s sake. In Iraq, the pro -Iranian militias are in the phase of electoral calculation, avoiding involvement.
But developments may be running faster than Hameni himself can. THE specialistsaid that a symbolic attack – probably on US bases in Iraq – is the most likely scenario. However, such a move would probably lead to the expansion of the war and perhaps ultimately to the fall of the Hameni.
For decades, Hameni led Iran with the slogans “death in America” and “death in Israel”, avoiding immediate conflict. Now, for the first time, Iranian territory is being laid directly. The country is in front of a decisive choice: Either will expand the war, risking to even ange Historical Agreement with the US, abandoning traditional hostility.
Hameni’s attitude is now awkward: at the same time unmatched and cowardly. And more and more in the power of power are wondering: Is it time to put aside to save Iran?
Feared attempted murder
It is noted that, before the publication of Atlantic, three other Iranian officials reported anonymously to the New York Times That Hameni has banned all electronic communications and communicates with military commanders through a “trusted intermediary”, fearing assassination attempt.
The NYTs also had previously reported that the Hameni has appointed three senior clergy as his successors in the event of a murder.