Explicit warning that the prospects of world trade have been “worsened” after the regime dictatorial US President Donald Trump, issued Wednesday (16.4.2025) by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
“The prospects for global trade has deteriorated abruptly due to the increase in duties and commercial policy of uncertainty,” the WTO said in its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report.
Based on the duties in force today, including the suspension of “mutual duties” for 90 days, the volume of global trade in goods is now expected to be reduced by 0.2% in 2025, before a “moderate” recovery of 2.5% in 2026.
The decline is expected to be particularly sharp in North America, where exports are projected to decline by 12.6% this year.
The WTO also warned that there are “serious downward risks”, including the implementation of “mutual” duties and a broader diffusion of political uncertainty, “which could lead to an even more intense decrease of 1.5% of global trade in goods”, in particular.
Recent tariff disorders are following a strong year for the World Trade in 2024, in which the merchandise increased by 2.9% and the service trade expanded by 6.8%, the WTO said.
The new estimate of a 0.2% worldwide reduction in 2025 is nearly three percentage points lower than would be according to a “low duties” basic scenario, the WTO added, and marks a significant reversal from the beginning of the year, when the agency’s economists were expecting to seek the organization. Conditions.
“The prediction risks include the implementation of the currently suspended mutual duties from the United States, as well as a wider diffusion of the uncertainty of commercial policy beyond trade relations associated with the US,” the WTO said.
“If in force, mutual duties will reduce the growth of global goods trade by an additional 0.6 percentage points, pose particular risks to less developed countries, while the spread of uncertainty about commercial policy will further reduce 0.8 percentage points. Overall, mutual duties and the spread of uncertainty would lead to a 1.5% reduction in global trade volume by 2025. “