Budget of budgets of all countries – members of EUtogether with Greece, can be made today (8.9.25) the very likely overthrow of the Bayrou government in France.
And this is because if the Prime Minister of France, Bairou does not receive a vote of confidence, he is expected to lift up A new “wave” of increasing yields on state yields of all EU Member States (along with Greece), that is, their costs of borrowing from markets.
Such an increase will come to sit down largely in the previous one that had occurred last spring after the announcement and then the German defense spending increase, thus even more expensive to borrow for defense (and for any other reason).
Reference to France was made yesterday (6.9.25) from the TIF step and the Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, but not on the impact of a possible deterioration of the political and economic crisis, only comparing the cost of lending to France and Greece with the first being the first one day than the second …
In particular, Mr. Mitsotakis said: “Keep an element that says it all: On September 1, 2015, the mighty France borrowed only 1.16%, the weak Greece with 9.18%. Yesterday the decade of French bond closed at 3.44, Greek at 3.33. Consider what efforts this change is hiding. And think that today everyone is wondering if there will be tomorrow’s government in Paris or, worse, whether France knocks on the door of the International Monetary Fund.
He added that “France, like several other countries, have already been put into excessive deficit. That is, they are called upon to take austerity measures by increasing taxes and reducing expenses. “
Without comparing the economic size and international displacement of France with that of Greece (France’s GDP is 13 times larger than Greek!), One has to realize that France is between a bad and a … dear scenario:
- The scenario It provides for the implementation of a austerity program, either as the one proposed by Bairou (if not overturned today), or a… similar to a possible other government without resorting to premature polls.
- The wicked scenario It provides for the overthrow of the government today and, later, the appeal of France to the IMF, for example, by a technocratic government and the imposition of yet another harder (compared to the one proposed by Bayrou) austerity program, after the French yields have been erupted and, more widely.
However, between the implementation of a baire -type austerity program and the implementation of an IMF type program, there is an intermediate – and more likely – scenario and is that of European Central Bank’s intervention, after one Increase yields of French government bonds that will bring about the awakening overthrow of the Bairo government and the ancillary deterioration of the crisis of political power in France.
Intervention by the ECB means a reduction in lending rates and the market for French government bonds.
In Athens, even if no one apparently wants such an economic crisis in the “heart” of the eurozone, they see the opportunity for even cheaper lending through a reduction in lending rates …
On the other hand, if the crisis in France “escapes”, no one can guarantee that control over the eurozone will be held, especially as international investors are waiting in the … corner of over -indebted countries such as Spain and our neighboring, Italy, but not but Greecedespite the fact that the latter has much better fiscal performance than the above countries, and it also has a “pillow” of 43 billion. euro.
Non -EU growth in the second quarter of 2025
After all, one should not forget that as the details of her have shown Eurostat last Friday September 5th 2025the rate of growth in the eurozone in the second quarter of 2025 was found slightly above zero, which means that the European economy practically begins to “eat” from its “stomachs” …
Although in Greece, the growth rate ran the same period at an almost twice as high as the eurozone, it was hit by the first quarter of 2025, due to a decrease in exports, in particular to “third countries” due to the tariff war on April 205 …
There may have been an agreement between the US – EU at the end of July 2025 at a level of duties against the EU better than the threatened (15% instead of 20%, 30%, etc.) does not cease to be a burden for European (together and Greek) exports and therefore at the rate of growth …
At the same time, the US -EU agreement -and this is something that “forgets” the political system in Athens -provides two more plus one -one clauses along with the relatively “low” 15%duty: the ejecting of European US energy markets, European investment in the US (until 2028) and European markets.
The above three clauses, if implemented by the EU economies, will deprive the European economy of vital financial resources over the next three years and will therefore halt its growth course for the benefit of … American.
In the meantime – from 2026 – the European recovery fund will be exhausted while new community budget It is expected to be much more stunned than its preliminary draft for the sake of an even greater increase in national defense spending and thus deficits and debts of EU members.
Under these not so… pink conditions governing the European economy (consumer demand is overwhelmingly dependent on the Greek economy) report analysts on newsit.gr, any measure of income deer (along with those announced yesterday from the TIF step) could be found to be gradually found.
It is recalled that Greece’s high growth rhythms are due, above all, due to the ejecting of arrivals from abroad and thus a possible (due to the emerging deterioration of the economic crisis in the EU) reduction, you will hit the Greek growth (as it was in the most recent).
This would lead to a reduction in national income, regardless of the reduction in direct taxes from January 1, 2026 (based on the TIF announcements), which is already offset (let’s not forget it!) From the expected increase in VAT revenue.
At the same time, the notorious change of productive model (eg with a shift in agriculture and industry in the Greek countryside), which is supported by the government, cannot, they note, could not be based only on tax incentives such as those announced at TIF (eg. Not only from the European point of view (read more about the investment terms of the US -EU Agreement at the end of July 2025), but also from the Greek side (eg delay in formulation of investment portfolio by a subsidiary capitalization fund, etc.).