OR China does not go back to the attack launched by Donald Trumpas the duties imposed by the US president is still shaking international financial markets. Of particular interest in this juncture has a new BBC analysis of the next episodes of the crisis.
His duties Donald Trump and toward China They triggered a trade war between the two largest economies in the world, with no signs of retreat.
A few hours after the US president almost threatened to double duties in China, Beijing replied that “fought up to the end».
This could let most Chinese imports face an impressive tax 104% – A sharp escalation between the two sides.
The Smartphones, computers, lithium -ion batteries, games and video game consoles make up most of Chinese exports to the US. But there are so many other things, from screws to boilers.
With the deadline approaching Washington as Trump threatens to implement additional duties from April 9the global economy keeps her breath!
«It would be wrong to believe that China will go back and unilaterally remove duties“, Says Alfreendo chinfar-numberSenior Advisor to “China Center” in the Think Tank “The Conference Board”.
“Not only would it make China look weak but would also give a pressure leverthe US to ask for more. We have now reached a dead end that will probably lead to long -term financial pain ”…
World markets have fallen since last week, when Trump’s duties began to come into force, who target almost all countries. Asian shares, which saw on April 7th the worst drop in the last decades, recovered slightly today (08.04.2025).
In the meantime, China reacted with titanic contributions – 34% – And Trump warned that he would retaliate with additional duties 50% If Beijing does not retreat.
Uncertainty is great, mmore duties, some more than 40%, to be implemented tomorrow. Many of them will hurt Asian economies: Tutches for China will reach 54%, and those for Vietnam and Cambodia will launch to 46% and 49% respectively.
Experts are concerned about the speed at which all this is happening, leaving governments, businesses and investors a little time to adapt or prepare for an extremely different global economy.
How China replies
OR China He had responded to the first round of Trump’s duties with huge contributions to some US imports, rare metal export checks and research against monopolies to US companies, including Google.
And this time he announced reciprocal duties, but it also appears to be preparing for stronger measures. Has allowed the weakening of her currency, the yuan, which makes Chinese exports more attractive. And businesses associated with the state have bought shares, in a move that seems to stabilize markets.
How will the ‘war’ end
Unlike the trade war with China, during Trump’s first term, “It is very difficult to predict where things can go from here“, Says Roland RajahHead of Economist at the Lowy Institute.
China has one ‘toolbox“For retaliation, he adds, such as the further depreciation of its currency or the imposition of sanctions on US businesses.
“I think the question is how restrained they will be (the Chinese). There are retaliation to save the pretexts and there is the use of all the arsenal. It is not clear if China wants to follow this path. But he can do it. “
Some experts believe that the US and China may participate in individual conversations. Trump has not yet spoken to X since he returned to the White House, though Beijing has repeatedly marked his willingness to talk.
Others, however, are less optimistic.
“I think the US is exaggerating itself,” says another economist, who is skeptical of Trump’s belief that the US market is so lucrative that China, or any country, will eventually succumb.
«How will this end? No one knows“, He points out. “I’m really worried about speed and escalation. The future is much harder and the risks are just so big“, He concludes.
source: bbc.com