“The risk of world economy recession this year is rising to 60%, from 40%,” its head economist said yesterday (3.4.2025) JpmorganBruce Kasman, characterizing them duties announced by Donald Trump the largest taxation in US households and businesses since 1968.
“The impact of this increase in duties is likely to be enlarged – through retaliation, slide in the US business climate and supplying chain disorders,” JPMorgan’s economist said in a note entitled “Blood will spill”, according to a Bloomberg report.
Several houses of Wall Street warned yesterday of recession in the US, with some making it a basic affair, as President Donald Trump announced large duties on goods imported from countries around the world. Other economists, including those of Jpmorgan, said the blow could be great.
The announcement shocked global financial markets and the S&P 500 suffered its worst day by 2020. Trump, speaking to Air Force One yesterday afternoon, said he was open to duties if the trade partners are able to offer something “unprecedented”.
“We do not make immediate changes to our forecasts and we want to see the original process of implementation and negotiation that will take place,” Khaman said in the note.
“However, we consider the complete implementation of policies announced as a significant macroeconomic shock that is not currently incorporated into our forecasts,” he said. “We emphasize that these policies, if maintained, will probably push the American and possibly the global economy this year.”