Overtime makes the financial staff of Donald Trump on the draft that the US president has requested for the finals duties that will impose the United States on countries and product categories.
The US President, Donald Trump He has already announced that tomorrow, April 2, he will present his final plan for duties with immediate implementation, giving the forthcoming announcement the heavy name: «Liberation Day».
Each provision is considered risky, but there is a key axis with two scenarios, in which all economic analysts, as well as US assessment agencies, appear to end up.
Scenario 1: Trump imposes duties to all countries
In this scenario, which is – as it seems – and the US president, with the argument that the US has come to change the rules of the world economy and with a secondary – but essential to the rhetorical trump – arguments that the country is losing the country annually on a year. will impose a horizontal duty on all imports.
In this scenario, or duties will be imposed on both the finals and raw materials, or the plan that the US president himself has presented to his government for at least two months will be implemented.
Scenario 2: Duties in specific categories and specific countries
In the second job case, the Donald Trump It chooses a more conservative approach, imposing new tariffs on more countries than it has already announced so far, but not for all imports.
Most likely, if Trump makes that choice, to have an important issue after the vehicle and steel industry and in the drug industrya commitment that has also given pre -election. There will also be exceptions in the countries, with Trump leaving a list of close “friends” and “allies”, but in no way Europe.
Uncertainty about the next day
The next day of Trump announcements is expected to be bad. Consumer confidence has slid, based on official data, in low twelve years, and markets also record significant losses, with the climate being heavy.
Indicatively, the S&P 500 has lost 8% since the US president publicly announced his intentions in mid -February. Recent poll published on March 31 shows how Only 38% of Americans approve their moves in the economywhile 60% condemns them (AP-NORC company).
And forecasts of ratings for the development of the American economy have also begun to change.
Her investment banks Wall Street report in their reports that, If duties are generalized and around 15%, the growth rate of the US economy will be limited to 1% for 2025, while 35% increase the chances of the US to get into recession by 2026 (Goldman Sachs).
The scenario for the World Organization “EY” is more difficult, which says in its report that with 20%duties, the US economy in 2026 will get into recession. The whole situation will also support the indicators of unemployment as well as inflation.
The USA In February, 4.1% unemployment recorded0.2% higher than the day Trump took over his duties, and is estimated to becan exceed 7% by 2027, with 5 million jobs disappear.
High inflation will further reduce US purchasing power and higher prices on shelves will again hurt the economically weaker Americans.
And all this while the US public debt exceeds 33 trillion dollars today.