Political developments in the Franceafter the conviction of her Marin Le Pen and its affiliates for embezzlement of public money. He was sentenced to deprivation of his right to be elected for 5 years (with immediate effect), which practically means that he cannot be a candidate in the 2027 presidential election.
To Marin Le Pen also imposed a 4 -year sentence (2 with suspension) and a fine of 100,000 euros. ‘Performed Democracy’ was the first reaction from the mouth party Zordan Bardella for which the road seems to be open and take a leading role in the far -right and claim the presidency in France in 2027.
It is noteworthy that a poll, before the court ruling was announced, would take Marin Le Pen first with 37%.
Le Pen Herself has already announced how will appeal and speaks of “Attempted political death”. The new judicial proceedings are expected to be long, however, as only 10 years of judicial proceedings had to spend today.
The rationale of the decision
Part of her rationale that led to Marin Le Pen’s conviction was revealed by the President of the Court of Justice, announcing the ruling.
Benedict de Pertoui, according to the French Agency, said: “The court took into account, in addition to the risk of repeating the offense, the great public breakdown of public order If a person who has already been convicted … is a candidate in the presidential election. “
Will Marin Lepen be a candidate in 2027? Three scenarios on the table
The future of Le Pen sentenced to five years of electoral disability with immediate power, which excludes it from the claim of the presidency of France in the 2027 presidential race, remains in the hands of judges.
In the event of new trial in 2026Marin Le Pen would have a chance to be a candidate in 2027 if the court decided, for example, her acquittal.
This sentence in practice means that Le Pen remains a Member of Parliament, but he will not be a candidate in elections for the next five years. This means that it cannot again claim a parliamentary seat in the event of the dismantling of the House, nor may it apply for the 2027 presidential election.
Although expected to appeal, This procedure does not inhibit the execution of the sentence.
Given the usual legal times, its second trial could be held within a year, that is, the final decision would not be expected before the spring of 2026, about a year before the presidential election.
Scenario No 1: Second Degree Innoration
The first possible scenario for Marin Le Pen, if appeals, is to be acquitted. This would be the ideal scenario for her, as she would allow her to clean her name and participate in the Elisee race.
However, this may seem unlikely, as the ruling of the Paris Court was particularly stringent. The former leader of the national alarm He was found guilty of embezzling public resources.
The court estimated that the total damage was to 2.9 million euros, as he “loaded the salaries of people who actually worked for the party” in the European Parliament.
The judges said he was “at the center of an organized system”. The prosecutor’s office had already requested strict penalties against her last November.
Even if he is acquitted, the case will make it difficult for the 500 signature of mayors needed to nominate in the presidential election. Additional, Her criminal involvement could tarnish her image.
After all, in 2013, she had requested the imposition of a life -long electoral impotence on those who were condemned for embezzlement of public resources.
Scenario No 2: Confirmation of the sentence in the second instance
Judges could confirm the penalty of electoral disability with immediate power. In this case, Marin Le Pen could appeal to the Supreme Court, but this would not suspend the sentence if it was confirmed. Thus, it would be permanently excluded from the 2027 presidential election.
This will paved the way for Zordan Bardela. For the first time, Le Penn told BFMTV on Sunday night that the party president has “The ability to become President of the Republic.”
Bardela’s entry into the presidential race would mean that Marin Le Pen should look for a new role, having devoted much of her career policy to claiming the Presidency.
Another probability of this scenario is be condemned, but with a lesser penaltysuch as a year of electoral disability with immediate execution.
In this case, she would have already served her sentence by 2027 and could be a candidate.
Scenario No. 3: No direct power prohibition
Judges could decide to maintain the penalty of electoral impotence but without immediate effect.
In this case, Marin Le Pen could appeal to Supreme Court, suspending the sentence of the sentence until the next trial. Thus, it would be able to nominate the presidential elections, despite the blow to its image due to the judicial process.
If elected to the presidency, it would be legally protected. The head of state in France enjoys “irresponsible”, which means that he cannot be prosecuted criminal, civil or administrative during his term of office, even for offenses committed before his election.
However, the judicial proceedings would continue after the expiry of her term of office.
The question that remains is whether Marin Le Pen will eventually want to be a candidate or whether she will consider her conviction already excluded from the political scene.
Information from Bfmtv