The aging of the population will gnaw at the growth dynamics of the economies, with the OECD to warn that the level of per capita GDP in 2060 it will be 14% lower than it would have been without the demographic slowdown trend.
According to what its Secretary General, Matias Korman, said at the 2nd Annual Conference of the OECD Crete Center for Population Dynamics, the average annual growth rate of GDP per capita is declining from 1% in the period 2006–2019 to 0.6% in the period 2024–2060, while the ratio of people over 65 per 100 people of working age rises from 22 in 2000 to 33 today and to 52 by 2050. The mix means less tax revenue, more spending on pensions, health and long-term care, and sharper skills gaps in high-demand industries.
The OECD favors three policy axes: raising the effective retirement age and removing disincentives to work at older ages, investing in health and reskilling so that older workers remain productive, and harnessing “untapped talent pools” such as women, young people and immigrants. Equalizing the participation of women and men could almost halve the slowdown, adding about 0.2 percentage points to the annual rate by 2060. A key role is also attributed to artificial intelligence to increase productivity.