Why a fall in natural gas prices is expected in the winter

They are reduced this year prices at natural gas across Europe, but also volatility, as pointed out by the European Association of Regulators ACER.

In the third quarter of 2025, the price was at 34 euros/MWh, i.e. from the lowest levels of the last two years. Today it trades for 31.5 euros. At the same time, the picture in the futures market shows a further decline in natural gas after this winter. By extension, the trend today is favorable for European consumers, with a view to 2026 as well.

Europe has boosted its imports over the past year, even as volumes from Russia have been steadily declining. However, this summer demand was particularly low, 19% less compared to seasonal estimates.

At the same time, pipelines that were previously used to transport Russian gas westward are now increasingly being used in the opposite direction. Thus, Eastern European countries can and do replace the quantities from Russia with equivalents from the West, ACER estimates.

Finally, the Old Continent is benefiting from reduced competition from Asia for LNG cargoes, which is pushing down fuel prices.

All this while the EU recently decided to permanently withdraw Russian gas from early 2028, with a transition period until then.



Macro-economics

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