The number of defense spending which countries – members of the EU and NATO in order to reach 3% of their GDP (not even the… 5% of NATO) was revealed yesterday (9.10.2025), the European Defense Commissioner for Andrew -based button.
Specifically, speaking on behalf of the EU Commission, at the Riga Congress “Deeper Examination: Strategic Investments in the European Defense Industry” the revealed that “in general, the fiscal perspective (EU defense spending) will be as follows:
- EUR 800 billion in addition will be invested by 2030. Of these 800 billion euros relate to “Safe loans of 150 billion euros will reach the Member States from the beginning of next year, while an additional € 650 billion will be available from national defense spending by 2030 by 2030
- A total of 2.5 trillion. euro during the period (2026 – 2030) or 4.2 trillion. euro during the period (2028 – 2035), if averaged 3% on expenditure in 2028 – 2035 »
“This is a real economic ‘big explosion’,” the button said. “The next fiscal policy program (new Community budget) for the period 2028 – 2035 will have $ 131 billion for defense and space; 5 times more than during the period 2021 – 2028,” he said.
The loan of compensation from Russia
“However, we hope that US President Donald Trump’s strategy for Peace in Ukraine will be successful, but we must be ready for different scenarios.
And that is why the EU’s possible decision on the “compensation loan” is so important – the mission of a signal that Ukraine’s defense will be reinforced by the total amount of Russian frozen assets can eventually convince Putin that he will not succeed in his war now.
The fact that we are lacking a political strategy for peace in Ukraine may be related to the fact that we have not invested our political capital so far in any long -term strategy against Russia.
The deficit of such a strategy leaves us in the situation where, on the one hand, we are hesitant to show our strongest support in Ukraine because we are afraid that Putin will react by escalation, and on the other we are afraid that Ukraine’s decisive victory can destabilize it.
This brings the fear that controlling nuclear weapons can be lost in chaos, and such fear prevents us from giving stronger support to Ukraine, “said Community Defense Commissioner.
Priorities
“In 2028 – 2035, National Defense Expenditure (EUR 4 trillion) will be 80 times higher than the next distribution of the Defense Fiscal Policy Program (50 – 60 billion euros). Defense industry programs will start operating since early 2026. The whole capital is dedicated to Ukraine and the completion of the defense industry.
“We must remember: National Defense Expenditure is not regulated. The committee will use Edip (European Defense Industry Program – European Defense Industry Program) only to motivate Member States to spend more, better, European, “the Community Defense Commissioner said. “To answer this question – how to finance the implementation, we can see that large financial resources are coming. The main challenge at the funding stage – how to have financial resources not in 2035, but before 2030, and especially in 2026 – 2030. “
Proposals
The button also mentioned “some proposals” about what the “implementation stage” means and the new financial opportunities for the Eastern Coast countries and the smaller EU Member States, such as Latvia or Lithuania.
“To better understand the new opportunities for our region, let us have in mind various factors:
- Defense will remain a key priority for the EU for the next 5 – 10 years;
- Strengthening the defensive potential of the countries of the Eastern Border Wing will be one of the key priorities for EU defense policy;
- Eastern coast countries have the benefit of learning from Ukraine and defense together “with Ukraine”;
- Learn not only about modern defense technologies, but also about how to build a modern defense “ecosystem”;
- Regional projects such as the “Wall of Drones” and the monitoring of the east coast will have a European flagship regime.
They will grow together with Ukraine and learn from Ukraine:
- for the importance of local production of drones and electronic warfare;
- the importance of creating local groups; importance of creating a local ecosystem;
To build a “wall of drones” we need to “break an old wall” in our mentality – to be open to the modernization of war doctrine;
The newly established companies should be considered as driving for modernization forces. “
The button supported a “joint EU-Ukraine” Brave-Tech-eu “platform-which we recently created as a means to bring Ukrainian defensive innovative mentality first of all in our region and later throughout the EU.
Baltic states (border countries) have all the potential to lead as supporters of defense modernization.
Battle tanks will continue to be produced in Germany. But the production of unmanned aircraft and electronic warfare systems can focus on Latvia and other Baltic states if we show smart leadership.
Politicians from the Baltic states should be active in promoting the wider agenda of our defensive modernization – not only how to enhance the EU’s material defensive readiness, but also: How to enhance our institutional and political defense, Attacks, our political will to defend ourselves. “
The plan of re -equipment
“NATO’s recently agreed with NATO and Member States are the basis for the design of what should be delivered by 2030,” the button noted, explaining that “we must remember that we have only 50% of what we need before 2030 according to the new targets.
“What to deliver” can be divided into 3 distinct groups of weapons systems, which must be produced and supplied:
- production of old systems (what we now produce);
- Development of European “new systems” (which are produced worldwide but not in Europe: deep attack capabilities);
- Modernization of weapons systems along the modernization of war doctrines (Ukraine lessons).
We also need to look at the difference: How to manage the mass production of old weapons, how to gain capabilities associated with strategic actuators, and how to implement large multinational flagship projects on a regional or European scale.
On the second issue, “how to implement in the most effective way?”, The challenge is to find the right balance: what role in managing a “big explosion” should be played by Member States, the Commission, the High Representative and the European Defense Organization.
Member States have strong historical beliefs that defense is a matter of national sovereignty and want to keep all decisions on the development of European defense in their hands, but this makes it difficult to achieve more central planning, more common supplies, for the European defense level, which can only be achieved by the EU. Stage of delivery.
A more central and European approach is also needed to overcome the structural problems of the European Defense Industry, which is very fragmented (due to fragmented defense policy), does not have a single market principles and makes the European defense industry less competitive in world markets. “