Restrained optimism is expressed by the market for the course in prices her energy This year’s winter. Energy costs in electricity and gas may remain higher than in the years before 2021, but has fallen significantly over crisis levels.
In electricity, winter is expected to bring higher prices in Greece and Europe as a result of seasonally higher energy demand. If the conditions are relatively smooth and there is no strong cold, then the most likely scenario is a predictable and mild appreciation, less than we experienced in the previous years.
In practice, this translates to a wholesale price of over 100 euros for the Greek market, from 70-100 euros in the past months. By comparison, last January it was 135 euros, so the bet is to limit lower this year.
The prediction contains a degree of uncertainty, as concomitant or extraordinary factors could overturn it. For example, this summer we did not see pressure conditions in SE Europe and its separation from the rest of the continent due to limited interconnections. The hope is that the same will apply in winter, and measures have been taken by the area’s administrators to ensure the best possible result.
In any case, the government has rushed to create a “fire safety” for the winter season. On the one hand he has pledged that he will proceed with new subsidies if prices go beyond a limit. At the same time, it has warned suppliers that it will not tolerate speculative behavior if it is found that invoices are not in line with wholesale prices.
In the case of gas, the situation in the European market appears smooth. The Commission relaxed the compulsory replacement rule of 90%of gas warehouses, which had to be achieved by the end of October. Now, a month’s extension has been extended and enhanced flexibility for those member states do not succeed. Today the grade is close to 83%, so one realizes that 90% until early winter is achievement.
Even more important, however, is the fact that there are plenty of LNG on the international market, as opposed to the years of energy crisis. Asia competition is limited and new US production has normalized conditions and prices. In practice, this means that any European company needs additional loads for its winter needs will be able to find them without paying dearly.
The price of the European TTF contract has been a little higher than 30 euros/MWh for months. The time market shows only a slight rise of one euro in January and February.
Finally, the image is positive for consumers in the oil market. The price of Brent is steady at $ 67-68/barrel, while most analysts’ estimates are that it will retreat further in the coming months. Thus, those who consume heating oil will not have to put their hand in their pocket this year.