Closer to new cycles of sanctions and duties brings the US President Donald Trump’s turn over war on war on Ukraine.
The reason for his statement to the UN Assembly on Tuesday (23.9.2025) that Ukraine could recapture his territories, he lost to Russia, with the help of the US and its allies.
This attitude contradicts the one that Trump had previously held and based on a concession policy to Russia. The Republican post on social media on Tuesday overturned his previous claims that Ukraine “had no papers to play” in the battle. But he did not propose new US steps to support Kiev, leaving this to the allies in Europe. The post has made no mention of new moves to tighten sanctions against Russia.
Public, Ukrainian and European officials welcomed Trump’s verbal shift, which followed a meeting with Russian President Volodimir Zelenski. Privately, they were more skeptical, feeling that he was responsible for ending the war on them. Although Trump seemed to set a basis for US support – mitigating allies’ fears of interruption of vital military aid – officials also warned that Trump’s view could change again.
His claim that Ukraine could recover – with the support of Europe – 20% of its lost territory from Russia also contradicts most of the allied secret services estimates, which see a bloody deadlock as the maximum that both sides can hope for. The Kremlin has dramatically intensified the attacks in the six weeks since Trump hosted Vladimir Putin in Alaska to discuss a peacekeeping deal, though progress on the spot was limited.
Implying that Russia could be a “paper tiger” on the brink of the economic crisis, Trump “is just trying to get under Putin’s towel,” said Kurt Wolker, who was a special envoy for Ukraine talks. “But it doesn’t imply that he is going to do something about it.”
Russia’s economy is increasingly feeling the pain of war effort – the government warned yesterday (24.9.25) that it plans to increase taxes to help counter costs – and Ukraine’s attacks on energy and other infrastructures have reached deeply behind its lines.
Ever since he returned to post in January, Trump has periodically threatened to impose sweeping new sanctions that, he said, would force Russia to the negotiating table. But he rarely keeps his promises, repeatedly giving Putin more time, even when the Russian leader intensified the attacks on Ukraine.
US officials assured the Allies this week that the government realized the need for a new approach to change Putin’s mentality, given Russia’s escalation by the Alaska Summit, recently including NATO invasions. For the allies, Trump’s change in the chances of Ukraine’s victory was a welcome change from his demands just last month to Kiev to grant territories to achieve a peacekeeping agreement.
“You see the frustration and frustration of the President, sincerely, with Putin,” the US ambassador to UN Mike Walts at Fox News yesterday Wednesday (24.5.2025). “By urging the president, you see Europe increasingly intensifying its efforts.”
A White House official said Trump has made it clear that this is not the US war and that Europeans need to take action to lead their own defense.
In the midst of allies’ appeals to increase pressure in Russia, Trump has intensified Europe to reduce Russia’s oil and gas markets, which have already declined sharply by Moscow’s complete invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Liquid natural gas, hoping that this will be enough to satisfy Trump.
His demands to use duties up to 100% to punish countries that have intervened after the invasion to boost Russian fuel markets – China and India – are a much more difficult mission for allies. The EU usually does not impose such extensive secondary sanctions and the block depends largely on the trade with China.
Trump reiterated these terms in his speech at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, saying it is up to Europe to take “exactly the same measures” – prohibitive duties – as he threatens.
“It is partly a strategy to divert the attention and distract and pass the ball to Europeans and say,” Well, you leave first, “said Liana Fix, a senior associate for Europe at the Foreign Relations Council. While Trump has imposed high duties in India on Russian oil markets in the midst of trade negotiations, he is in commercial talks with China and withdrew from major duties there earlier this year.
There are also more immediate steps that the US could take if it was serious about shrinking Russia’s revenue from energy. EU’s largest offenders, whose leaders also have the closer ties with the Trump government – Hungary and Slovakia – have so far not encountered any specific pressure from the US beyond asking them to comply with EU sanctions against Moscow, according to people.
Trump told reporters on Tuesday that Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban is “my friend”, adding “I haven’t talked to him, but I feel that if I did, he can stop and I think I’ll do it.”
The US could also enter the Russian war funding machine faster by reducing the ceiling on its oil price to match the EU level of $ 47.60 per barrel, Allied officials said.
Putin concluded that military escalation is the best way to force Ukraine in talks on his terms and that Trump is unlikely to do a lot to boost Kiev’s defense, Bloomberg said, citing people near the Kremlin.
With Putin, Trump “still wants to reach an agreement and after an agreement to make money”, something that new sanctions could complicate, Volker said.
“So, instead of looking at what the US can do, it is responsible for Europe,” he added. “All this could change again tomorrow. He could call Putin and say, “Well, we had an important call.”