OECD downgraded the forecast for development her Eurozone 2026 to 1% (from 1.2% in June), while in 2025 it kept it at 1.2%, while sounding the alarm about the impact of duties that have not yet shown their teeth.
As a result, the weakest image of 2026 growth in the eurozone is shaping a more ‘tight’ framework in which Greece will attempt to achieve its own growth goals.
Less growth in our “neighborhood” means closer demand for Greek exports and less help than European activity, at a time when the budget 2026 is in the final line.
On the commercial front, the lower growth of the eurozone restricts the margin of rising for goods, especially for markets with already sluggish momentum, and in services, tourism remains a support, which will, however, limit as long as the main markets come from which inbound travelers are deceased. Fiscal, a change in total of international institutional forecasts would also require a different management of macroeconomic assumptions that supply budget forecasts.
What is Greece looking at
As a reference basis, Greece uses for its own assumptions the provisions of the Commission, whose spring prediction 2025 gives 1.4% for 2026, higher than 1% of the OECD. However, the degradation of the OECD to its own goal (as well as the warning that the blow from the tariffs will hit 2026) leaves open the possibility of revisions in the macroeconomic forecasts and the Commission’s autumn exhibition, which is expected on November 26th.
After all, the OECD direction is reinforced by the latest views of the ECB, which outline the same size order for 2026.
It should be noted that for the goal of Greece itself in 2026, the image converges lower than summer onwards. The Bank of Greece has already moved the estimate to 1.9%. The prerequisites for not having a greater development of growth is the smooth execution of the recovery fund with mature projects and continuing private investment in energy, infrastructure, constructions and services of high value added. Without them, the “gap” left by the weaker eurozone will hardly be filled by a Greek over -performance.
Simply put, the weaker new forecasts do not cancel the dynamics of Greek development, but raise the bar of difficulty, while already changing the field on which the budgetary goals of 2026 is already changing to the most adverse.