It was late August when Pentagon officials conveyed to a group of European diplomats that the US was planning to stop part of military aid to Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, all NATO member states bordering Russia. Some European diplomats were worried that this move of Donald Trumpcould encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin. And it seemed that they were right …
Friday (19/9/25) Russian aircraft MIG-31 invaded Estonia airspace However, Russia denied that it violated the airspace, stressing that its aircraft flew over neutral waters. A few hours later, Russian aircraft flew over a Polish oil mining platform, according to Warsaw. Last week, Russian drones were shot down in Poland. As for Donald Trump’s reaction to all these incidents? It was restrained…
The US president did not refer to the last invasion for several hours, before stating that it could be a “big problem”. After last week’s incident in Poland, he published an enigmatic message in the Truth Social application: “Let’s go!”
Changing Tactics from Trump
After months of proposals to resolve or mediate in some of the most intractable conflicts in the world, Trump has been largely withdrawn from diplomacy in recent weeks. Instead, according to a Reuters analysis, it has allowed and in some cases pressured the allies to take over the leadership, with only distant promises for US help.
He has turned his attention to internal issues, such as the fight against crime, the treatment of what he calls for violent left -wing extremism, and the revision of a major visa program.
After an intense summer diplomacy, which included Putin’s hospitality in Alaska, Trump He told Europeans that they should impose strict sanctions on buyers of Russian oil if they want Washington to tighten the financial cluster around Moscow.
After the US president spent the first months of his term in his term trying to secure a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian fighter organization Hamas, he seems to be indifferent to Israel’s moves that seem to undermine the possibility of an agreement to end the war.
White house officials protested when Israel bombed a Hamas office on the territory of the US ally, Qatar, but did not take any measures. When Israel began a controversial military attack in the city of Gaza, Trump did not object, although European and Arab allies condemned the move.
Return to regularity
In the summer, it was a different Trump. He bombed Iran’s basic nuclear facilities, supporting the Israeli air war in June. At a NATO conference in the Netherlands later the same month, he said he would send new Patriot defense systems to Ukraine. In July, he intensified his threats to sanctions and duties against Moscow.
Now, according to analysts, Trump returns to his normal state.
Aaron David Miller, US veteran and senior researcher at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Trump Perhaps he just realized that conflicts are much more intractable than he had imagined.
“He is not interested in doing anything unless he sees that the cost of effort and political capital will be worth it,” Miller said.
The White House did not respond immediately to a request for comment.
The unstable president and the exhausted diplomats
The president’s last turn could easily be followed by another turn. In April and May, he publicly expressed his intention to withdraw from the war to Ukraine, then back in a strong way.
In addition, the departure of the White House was not absolute. In recent weeks, some US weapons have begun to enter Ukraine as part of a US -NATO security initiative called Purl program.
However, analysts expressed their concern that The mild US reaction to Russia’s latest challenges will only encourage Putin’s more aggressive actions.
Further departure of the US ‘will lead us to more provocative actions than Putin as it considers Europe weaker because it can be divided – especially without US support“, Said Alex Plitsas, a senior researcher at the Atlantic Council.
Several European diplomats in Washington have privately expressed their exhaustion from Trump’s unstable attitude towards Russia and suggested that a further hardening of his attitude towards Moscow could be deprived of credibility.
During the summer, according to diplomats, the mood was significantly different.
However, the frustrating summit with Putin did not lead to any significant progress and was a major blow to Kiev: Trump left the meeting stating that the ceasefire in Ukraine is not a prerequisite for a constant peace – a position supported by Putin, but not a position.
In a tense telephone conversation with European partners on September 4, Trump argued that European countries were waiting for the US to rescue them, while Europeans themselves continued to support the Russian war machine by buying Russian oil, according to two officials.
Next week, Trump told European Union officials that they would have to impose 100% duties on China and India to punish them for Russian oil markets. One official said Trump described such a move as a prerequisite for taking action by the US.
Trump’s supporters say he himself It simply requires Europe to defend its security.
However, some diplomats suspect it is a trap. Such measures would be difficult to quickly pass through EU bureaucracy, especially as the Union prefers sanctions to duties. Two senior European diplomats in Washington also noted that Trump had recently talked about the reduction of trade barriers with India.
It is not clear whether Friday’s invasion of Estonia will change Trump’s calculation against Russia.
His government did not seem to be influenced by a letter sent last week MPs of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, calling for the review of Trump’s plan to abolish part of security aid.
“Many of our European allies are among the richest countries in the world,” a White House official said. “They are absolutely capable of funding these programs if they wish.”
Source: Reuters