The international price of oil Currently defying the forecasts of big banks, which want it to fall to $ 50/barrel soon.
OPEC has now channeled 2.5 million barrels above market after the relaxation policy that has followed in recent months. However, these quantities remain largely “theoretical” and experts estimate that the actual effect is much less. Thus, today’s oil price continues to be fixed for the time being, with $ 67-68 at Brent and 63-64 in the WTI.
It is also observed that there is a surplus of production based on international organizations and at the same time receiving commercial reserves to land and tankers, which is normally testified.
Indicatively, the International Energy Agency calculates the production-demand surplus to 2.1 million barrels for the second half of 2025. Macquarie raises it to 3 million barrels, according to the Financial Times.
This week, one of the largest pumps have been announced in the US this week, with a similar trend in several western markets. The exception is China, which has greatly increased the barrels it holds aside and thus supports the demand and prices of black gold.
An interpretation of the “persistent” prices of crude oil has to do with market expectations. Merchants know that OPEC has now largely exhausted the margins and has no big “pillow” left if needed in the future. The conditions are automatically created if demand continues to increase significantly from now on. Something that is also advised by the fall of the central interest rate in the US.
Backwardation in the time -limit is attempted to attest to this reality, while IAEA’s ominous forecasts for the future of production are coming to be added. The Agency has warned that the costs of new deposits should be increased, as today they are particularly low to support production in the coming years and decades.
It is also worth mentioning the geopolitical factor, as the US and the EU. Russian oil is constantly fighting with new measures, affecting the balance and causing uncertainty.
On the occasion of the above, the assessment of most analysts is that we will see a decline in prices in the coming months, though perhaps not as intense as expected. If the prices of crude remain constant amid such a large surplus, then it will be a very clear message that the sequel will be difficult and the prices will go up.