It raises the bar for the development of Greek economic This year, but also in 2026 the Bank of Greece (BCT).
According to the macroeconomic forecasts released last week by the European Central Bank, the BoG in today’s (19.9.25) periodical edition on the Greek economy predicts that this year’s GDP will increase at 2.2%in 2026, the pace will fall to 1.9%to 1.9%.
It is recalled that about two months ago (late June), in the Monetary Policy report, the BoG envisioned 2.3% for a growth rate this year, for 2026 the pace was slightly down to 2.1% and maintained at this level in 2027.
As the BoG says in today’s note, the growth of the Greek economy after 2025 will converge at its potential. This development will mainly come from private consumption and investment, with the support of the available European resources.
Inflation is expected to remain high at 3.1 % in 2025, reflecting the maintenance of services in the service sector. The fiscal policy is expected to become expanding in 2025, based on the implementation of the RRF (RRF). Thanks to the budget space, new permanent expansionist fiscal measures were announced at the Thessaloniki International Exhibition in September, with an estimated cost of € 1.8 billion in 2026 (about 0.7% of GDP) and EUR 2.5 billion in 2027 (about 0.9% of GDP). These measures are expected to lead to higher than the planned growth in 2026 and 2027.
Regarding the risks on the growth front, the BoG estimates that they are “downward”, that is, there is a chance of further recession of the rhythm. The risks are mainly related to increased geopolitical and global uncertainty in commercial policy and climate change.
It is emphasized, however, that the growth potential of the Greek economy observed in recent years is expected to be maintained in the years 2025-2027, in the midst of an uncertain international economic environment. BoG economists recall that even after the downward revision of the growth rates of the Greek economy “these growth rates are higher than those of the euro area. As the lower revisions explain compared to June 2025, they are small, mainly due to lower economy’s expected performance for 2025, but also because of the reciprocity of the actual exchange rate of the euro.
The main growth lever is expected to be consumption, while investment and exports will continue to contribute positively. In particular, private consumption is expected to increase at an average rate of 2.0% during the forecast period. High private consumption is supported by reinforcing the real household income available, as employment is expected to continue to recover, wages are increasing and inflation is gradually decreasing.
The total investment is expected to increase by average by 7.5%. Public investment will record a strong negative change in 2027, while home investment will continue to record a satisfactory pace.
However, investment in housing, as a percentage of GDP, will remain at a much lower level compared to the pre -crisis period.