Greece is in the final straight for its new verdict Moody’s On Friday 19.09.2025, with analysts discounting that the most ‘difficult’ of the big houses evaluation It will maintain the evaluation in BAA3 with a fixed Outlook, in the light of March’s high upgrade and the recent confirmation by DBRS.
Interest is focused on the “keys” that Moody’s will weighing: primary surpluses, debt de -deficiency, banking durability and persistent external imbalances are the elements that will be “burdened” with the reports of the report.
What does the market expect
In recent days, international houses and banks have estimated that Moody’s will confirm the grade without a change in Outlook. JP Morgan, which remains positive in Greek bonds, does not see a reason for a new move so soon after the March upgrade, when Greece has finally passed the investment level. This valuation is based on the fact that the basic fundamentals have already been imprinted on the current level, while open issues (external balance, demographic) want time to improve visible.
What did Moody’s “weigh” in March
On 14.03.2025 Moody’s raised Greece to BAA3, citing faster than expected improvement in public finances, greater resilience to the economy against future shocks and a stable political context. At the core of the rationale were found in successive high primary surpluses (and while strong budget performance continues) that support the debt/GDP disconnection, as well as progress in the banking industry, which presented profitability and return to a dividend policy. As a counterweight, the house kept Outlook steady, as some structural challenges – such as demographic and external imbalances – are slowly improving. Moody’s herself returned on 11.09.2025 with a comment, describing the TIF’s new 1.7 billion TIF tax package that is also aimed at demographic incentives, but noting that his permanent impact will be judged by discipline in the medium -term budgetary plan.
What DBRS said
The Canadian “oracle” of another evaluation house is also important for the “climate” in the markets. About ten days ago, DBRS confirmed Greece to the BBB with a steady trend. In its rationale, it stood in the resistant growth (about 2.3% in the years 2023-2024), in the steady declining unemployment (about 8% in the summer of 2025), in the rapid absorption of resources of the recovery fund-with peak investment and reforms-and the significant progress of the banking system. At the same time, he stressed that the large current account deficit and the very negative net international investment position remain weaknesses of the country’s profile.
Friday’s “keys”
Following the upgrade of March, Moody’s is expected to put a burden on the fact that debt decline continues at a rate resistant to interest rates and macroeconomic shocks, that primary surpluses are sustainable and that the reforms of the recovery fund translates to permanent growth. Moody’s will also weigh the progress of banks to maintaining quality assets and capital as well as the smooth absorption of any vibration from the international environment. The danger column is the persistent current account deficit, the high – albeit downward – debt/GDP ratio and the demographic, which limits the rate of growth growth and presses the insurance.
Based on the above, the basic scenario for preparation is a confirmation of BAA3/Stable, that is, no change. An uplook upward move would require tangible indications that the external deficit is declining and that fiscal performance is even underway under unfavorable scenarios. Conversely, a negative “signal” would need to be diverted to the budget or banks, which today do not reflect the available data and the latest home remarks.