The accuracy in Greece both this year and 2026 is preserved, as, according to the official Eurosystem forecasts, the inflation In our country it will continue to diverge upwards compared to that of Eurozone.
In the latest inflation report released today by the Bank of Greece (BoG), it is noted that (harmonized) inflation in Greece is expected to fall to 3.1% this year (from 3.7% in July) and 2.6% in 2026, against 2.1% and 1.7%.
As emphasized, this important revision on inflation in Greece is attributed to the unexpected increase in the individual price index in food and services.
It is recalled that the harmonized consumer price index in Greece in August fell to 3.1% from 3.7% in July, as all individual indicators were down. At the same time, structural inflation fell to 3.9% from 4.3% respectively.
However, as the BoG points out, “the differences in inflation, both in overall and in structural inflation, between Greece and the Eurozone, although they have declined significantly in August, remain significant.”
It is noted that in the eurozone inflation in August increased marginally to 2.1% from 2% last month. The marginal increase in inflation of non -processed foods combined with the less negative inflation of energy was partially offset by the reduction of inflation of processed foods and services.
Thus, so -called structural inflation (ie the consumer price index without energy and food) remained unchanged at 2.3% for a fourth consecutive month.
Market expectations for inflation (in the eurozone) in medium -term horizon show that it will remain steady below the 2%threshold. Developments on the inflation front have contributed to the reduction of interest rates by the European Central Bank. It is recalled that the ECB has, so far in 2025, reduced interest rates by 100 basis points (1%).
Markets do not expect any changes to the ECB’s interest rates in October and December 2025 (with a probability of about 90% and 80% respectively), while two months ago, interest rates were expected by 25 basis points in December 2025 with 68%.
In the long run, markets give a slightly higher chance (about 60%) remaining interest rates unchanged rather than reduced by 25 basis points by mid -2026.