The only reduction in the prices of agricultural producer across the European Union was recorded in the second quarter, but while the accuracy in food It seems to balance, the transmission of the reductions is slowly moving “from the field to the shelf”.
Thus, the image of accuracy in the food includes two speeds. On the one hand, producer prices in agriculture decreased by -0.1% on a year in the second quarter of 2025 (in total, they follow a strong downward trend after the peak of 2022), on the other hand, the consumer price index in food until August continues to move up to 2.2%, and in advance.
What do the items show
At the production level, the decrease is existing and in some categories intense (eg olive oil). On the shelf, however, the average food price remains increased on an annual basis. Characteristics, while olive oil records a great deal of price, other subcategories such as fruits (but also some imported coffee and chocolate) continue to push the inflation of food.
The above means that there is a lag in the transmission of reductions.
Firstthere are time delays and after production reductions continue to operate and there are stocks that have been purchased in previous, more expensive lots.
Secondthe final food cost is not only the raw material, as energy, transport, packaging and wage costs remain higher than the pre -crisis period, and keep the final price high.
Thirdlythe market structure with the existence of strong mesuits and food chains restricts competition and keeps the cost raised as there are no alternatives.
Fourthtax factors (VAT, special taxes where applicable) do not change with producer prices and continue to charge the final price, although this is done proportionately.
Fifthpractices such as “shrinking packaging” are ongoing, which, even when the price per kilo falls, are not automatically translated into the shelf as a lower price per piece.
What to expect this autumn
If the monthly pace in food remains negative and in September – October, the divergence between producer prices and consumer will shrink. The intensity of the decline will be judged by the general operating costs (energy, transport, wage) in processing and competition on the shelf (offers, private label). If these sizes are not redefined, food accuracy is expected to continue to recede, though gradually.
It should be noted that within 2 weeks, supermarkets and the food industry will submit proposals for reductions in hundreds of products, cutting their average profit. There will be prices in school supplies at last year’s levels, following chains agreement and intensive controls for misleading discounts based on the Code of Conduct. At the same time, the new Independent Consumer & Supervisory Protection Authority comes with legislative October, while medium -term aim and to strengthen domestic production (primary, processing) to reduce imports and prices.