A rare opportunity to meet with the two most important energy partners -in India and China- has the Russian president Vladimir Putin This weekend, at a time when something needs something.
Ensure that Narendra Monti in India is willing to maintain a healthy level of crude oil imports from Russia, despite the growing US pressure, will be high on Vladimir Putin’s agenda. His second promise will probably be to persuade her leader China Si Jing to play his role, including the unblocking of a natural gas pipeline discussed and will help Moscow replace more than its sales in Europe, according to Bloomberg.
The Sangai Cooperation Summit, which begins Sunday in the city of Tianzin, will gather leaders from more than twelve countries. It will also be Putin’s first meeting, Monti and Si from the Summit in Russia last year.
The three countries have become inextricably linked since Moscow invaded Ukraine, forming a kind of easy -to -use energy triangle as Western restrictions have been tightened. Together, China and India have bought more than half of Russia’s energy exports since early 2023, according to the energy and fresh air research center.
“Beijing and New Delhi will probably remain key customers for Russian energy exporters. The relationship is critical to the Kremlin, as the oil and gas industry remains a key source of export revenue for the country, “said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
China and India are dominating energy imports from Russia
Overall, more than 50% of the markets since early 2023. However, to get even closer, it will be required to overcome significant obstacles, from India’s suspicions to China to its own China protections against excessive dependence on a single energy supplier.
“It is up to Beijing to win Delhi’s support and Moscow may want to see what he can do to make India’s cooperation with Russia worthy of Delhi,” said Jan Ian Chong, Associate Professor of Political Science. “After all, the apparent reason for which India is facing high duties from the US has to do with the market for Russian energy.”
As far as oil is concerned, Russia will be pleased if it manages to maintain total crude oil exports close to this year’s level. Russia’s daily exports to China were on average 2.1 million barrels in the first seven months of the year, with 1.9 million barrels daily heading to India, according to Bloomberg calculations based on international energy organization.
Chinese markets are unlikely to change soon. This lets Putin focus on Monty, whose government has repeatedly attacked by the Trump government and is now facing 50% duties on Indian products, especially to punish the country for the purchase of Russian oil.
Moscow’s difficult position with natural gas is more complicated. Putin is likely to re -undermine the pipeline “The Power of Siberia 2” when he meets with Si. The project will draw natural gas from the deposits that previously served Europe and supply China. However, despite many years of discussion, Beijing was not willing to commit.
Putin can also appreciate China’s appetite for more loads of liquefied natural gas than the installation of Arctic LNG 2, which has been ratified by the US. This perspective seems at least closer, as a tanker carrying a cargo from the factory tied to a Chinese port for the first time on Thursday. Arctic LNG 2 is the key to Russia’s plan to triple exports by sea by 2030 and use new markets after a sharp decline in sales through pipelines to its traditional buyers in Europe.
India’s stretched rope
Petroleum sales to India are perhaps the most likely to be tested in the coming months, as the country is marching on a political stretched rope between the US, which bought products worth almost $ 90 billion last year, and Russia, a long -term and a long -term ally.
In recent weeks, Washington has criticized New Delhi to buy oil at discounted prices from Russia and therefore funding its war in Ukraine. White House Commerce Advisor Peter Navarro has reached the point of describing the conflict as a “Monty War”.
The prime minister was provocative. However, the 50% duty on Wednesday is expected to cause a catastrophic blow to the economy and it is not clear whether the Monty government can withstand pressure if it faces job losses and such a heavy hindrance to growth.
India is now one of the leading buyers of Russian crude oil in Asia
The four -week average mobile average of crude oil missions from all Russian ports shows an increase in markets from India after the invasion of Ukraine.
At the moment, India is diminishing its markets – but does not stop them. Its refineries plan to buy 1.4 million to 1.6 million barrels a day since October, compared to the average of 1.8 million barrels in the first six months of the year.
Fewer Russian markets will mean that the refineries will lose savings on average in almost $ 10 a barrel compared to Saudi Arabia’s slow oil since mid -2022. In the meantime, Russia will have to find other supplies for surplus.
China avoids
Putin’s big prize in talks with Si, however, will be natural gas. China and Russia are developing their relationship in the gas sector since 2014, when they signed an agreement on the construction of the first pipeline “The Power of Siberia”. This pipeline is now in full capacity and is expected to draw 38 billion cubic meters this year from Eastern Russia to China’s big coastal cities. Another pipeline, the Far East, will add 10 billion cubic meters and will be launched in 2027.
What aspires, however, the Kremlin is the “Siberian Power 2” pipeline, a huge pipeline carrying 50 billion cubic meters a year 2,600 kilometers from the Yamal peninsula along the Russian steppe. It will allow Russia to regain about one -third of natural gas sales it lost to Europe through pipelines, transferring fuel from the wells itself that once supplied countries such as Germany.
The problem is that China does not seem to want it, or at least not under current conditions. For years, the project has been a topic of debate – but while official Russian announcements have emphasized the agreement, Chinese statements are more often omitted.
Beijing has plenty of reasons to be cautious about the signature, said Erika Dones, a senior researcher at the Columbia University Global Policy Center.
First of all, China’s demand for gas imports has been slowed down by the dizzying growth it has recorded in the last decade. Mining companies were able to increase domestic production, while coal and a rapidly growing sector of renewable energy reduces their contribution to electricity production. The total gas imports in 2024 were actually lower than in 2021.
Then there is the appearance of the LNG market, which has given China options for the gas market that does not bind it to a many decades agreement. The signature of Power of Siberia 2 would also make Beijing largely dependent on a single country for much of its supply, a position in which it does not want to be.
The only fly in milk is Trump, and whether his policies and attitude could restore Beijing’s energy calculations.
“I don’t know if we are still at a point where China is ready to move on with Power of Siberia 2,” he said. “But you can imagine a situation where China may be willing to do so for the safety of supply, especially if it were to receive price concessions.”