They say the story is repeated. Following its defeat by the British in the first opium war in 1842, China signed a peace treaty that condemned it for more than 100 years in oppression by the great powers and a pecuniary control of its trade. Something similar is happening, according to a report of «Politico» And in our time, after a “extremely unequal” trade agreement signed by the European Union with its US Donald Trump last July.
In China’s case, “it was the first of the so -called” unequal conditions “, where the intimidating military and technological superpower of the time imposed unilateral terms to reduce its huge commercial deficit,” Politico said in his report. As “Politico” points out, the image of European Commission President Ursula von der Laieni, traveling in a hurry to the resort of US President Donald Trump to Scotland to distract a deal that is “unyielding” He signs agreements that would otherwise not signed.
The agreement closed by von der Layen provides for the acceptance of 15% US duties in most European products, in exchange for an indefinite promise that there will be no further commercial sanctions. Her critics speak of “political defeat”, “capitulation” and “act of slavery”.
And yet, just a few days later, Trump threatened with new duties, this time on the occasion of European digital economy arrangements, warning that it would cut off critical microchip technologies if Europe does not comply with the demands of US technological giants. Thus, he did not dry out the ink of the agreement and the Commission’s festivities that he secured a commitment that there would be no other duties, collapsed.
Politico emphasizes that the reality is that the EU has been trapped in a vicious circle of dependency. It cannot defy the US because its military security is still based on Washington, especially as Vladimir Putin remains a threat to the east of its border. It can not even be technologically confronted, as American superiority in semiconductors, software and artificial intelligence is unquestionable.
Europe remains unprepared
However, as the report points out, today’s weakness of Europe is not a thunderbolt. Just as the 19th -century China dynasty was unable to understand the progress of the industrial revolution, so the European leaders downgraded the signs of danger. After the Cold War they reduced military spending, leaving the member states dependent on NATO.
At the same time, while the US, China and other forces invested in state -of -the -art technologies, Europe was immersed in bureaucratic processes and delayed creating uniform capital markets or steadily moving on to digital integration. As the Commission’s Director General of Commerce, Sabine Vegian admitted, “we ignored the bell that hit the first Trump term and went back to lethargy”.
The US president himself does not hide his ambitions. The new trade agreement, his trading representative argued, is the basis of a “Turnbury system”, corresponding to Bretton Woods of 1944, which defined post -war economic architecture, a clear message that the rules are written in Washington, not in Brussels.
More humiliation could be followed as both sides are trying to settle various details-from a system of tariff quotas for steel and aluminum to exceptions for certain areas-which must still be settled.
“This agreement is so vague that there are many points where conflicts could easily escalate and then be used as an excuse for why other issues will not go ahead,” said Nicolas Poitier, a researcher at the Bruegel Institute.
Every next round of negotiations is in danger of turning into another act of humiliation.
Europe’s one -way street
The question that arises is whether Europe will remain a spectator in the geopolitical game or whether it manages to regain its prestige. This is the question that has plagued Brussels lately.
It is clear that the EU must invest severely in common defense potential so that it does not depend on the US against Russia or other threats. It is also clear that mass investments in AI, quantum computers, green technologies and semiconductors are one -way. It must be absolute priority.
Finally, the European Union must take advantage of the power of the single market and sign new trade agreements with trusted partners, such as Mercosur, India and etc.
Only in this way will it cease to be just the battlefield where the US and China clash. Mario Draghi, in his recent intervention, clearly put it that if Europe does not change radically, it would end up “inexplicably weak and geopolitical”.
If the EU continues to move slowly, with compromises and endless discussions, it will be doomed to submit and accept agreements on adverse terms. It will be a permanent regime of humiliation and geopolitical humiliation.