The bilateral session in Alaska between Donald Trump and the Vladimir Putin ended, but peace in Ukraine It has not come. The scenarios on how the war will evolve and, under what conditions will be a total ceasefire, the WSJ commemorates and shows.
After Vladimir Putin made it clear to Donald Trump that he does not accept a temporary ceasefire Only one overall peace agreement, it seems that Volodimir Zelenski may decide to lose territories in the end but in the end make Ukraine survive as one Safe and dominant state- and even shrink-. Ukraine, on the other hand, could lose very quickly and land and sovereignty and be back in the sphere of influence of Moscow, he says the same means in his analysis.
What will happen and when it remains unknown. The eyes of the whole world are now in Volodimir Zelenski’s meeting with Donald Trump (Monday night) in Washington. As the American said, if he goes well then they will Trilateral with Vladimir Putin.
The Russian president blocked US and Europe’s pressure to cease fire that would freeze the current front line, followed by talks on Ukrainian territory and guarantees for Ukraine security. Instead, Vladimir Putin implied that he would continue the war until Ukraine and the West be willing to satisfy his wider geopolitical goals.
But European leaders and Volodimir Zelenski warned Russia How if it does not accept an agreement or stop the attacks, then the sanctions will intensify.
“We are convinced that, in order to be sustainable and long -term Ukrainian settlement, All the deeper causes of the crisis must be eliminated, which have been repeatedly discussed, all the reasonable concerns of Russia must be taken into account, and a fair balance in Europe and the world must be restored in its entirety, “Putin said after the summit.
Vladimir Putin said that the Ukrainian security – But previous conversations have shown that the devil is hiding in the details.
The emphasis on the “main causes” – its formal abbreviation of a series of complaints about Ukraine’s political course to the West and its expansion to NATO – shows that He has not abandoned his primary goals To restore Russian political sovereignty in Ukraine, rebuild Moscow’s sphere in Eastern Europe, and regain the regime of a global great power. So he went to the war in 2022.
Russia’s attempt to conquer Kiev entirely failed and is probably inaccessible. Ukraine’s strong defense restricts Russia to marginal profits on the high cost battle. Ukraine’s hopes to completely expel Russian invaders have also declined, given the burdensome situation of her army.
This leaves 2 possible endings in the biggest war in Europe after World War II.
‘Coalition of Easive’ as a deterrent to
Ukraine’s leadership has been silently accepted that it does not have the military force to fully regain its borders. Last week, Volodimir Zelenski showed his willingness to negotiate on the territory In video calls with Donldramp and European leaders.
Kiev and European countries say they will never legally recognize Russia’s profits but give the signal that they will live with the reality of de facto Russian control.
The best scenario for Kiev and its European supporters are probably to limit Russia to what its forces already conquerequivalent to approximately the 1/5 of Ukrainian land. Kremlin continues to insist that Ukraine must retreat from areas that claims to be Russian but does not control – especially the part of its area Donetsk controlled by Ukraine which holds a chain of fortified cities.
But the biggest question is what will happen to the remaining 80% of Ukraine.
Kiev and its European allies want to protect the future security and sovereignty of the remaining part of Ukraine with a combination of strong Ukrainian military defense and western aid: the so -called ‘Coalition of the willing’ headed by United Kingdom and France wants to develop some of his own troops in Ukraine as further deterrent against a future Russian attack.
European leaders hope that the United States will be involved in security guarantees for Ukraine and have been encouraged by Donald Trump’s apparent “opening” to it in recent days. Any possible role in the US still remains unclear.
Such a result would look like the end of the Korean War in 1953, which left the peninsula divided, but the South Korea protected since then, mainly from US troops. For Putin, however, a Korean type would be equivalent to historical failure.
It would hold 20% of Ukraine’s land – which would have been turned into ruins – but would definitely lose most of Ukraine, while watching Western troops protecting a country that insists that it is a brother of Russia.
Putin’s reasons for such a retreat may be that Fear that war imposes unsustainable economic and political risks for Russia’s internal stability – or that Russia could not face a escalation of sanctions under the leadership of the US. So far, however, most observers see few reasons believe that this is true.
Donald Trump and other US officials have implied that Washington could hit Russia’s economy By suppressing oil revenue, through punitive duties to Russian oil buyers, bank sanctions, banning the Russian shadow fleet of oil tankers and other measures.
Most analysts say the sanctions could be tightened, but the significant effects will take time.
Division by submission
Russia’s demands include the Reduction of Ukrainian Armed Forces, restriction of weapons of her and her supplies to weapons from the Westand change its political status —Mut of its constitution, its leadership and its policies on language, history and national identity.
The greatest risk for Ukraine is not just the loss of the East and its south. Is that what is left will not be able to resist a third Russian invasionafter those 2014 and 2022. The threat could force Kiev to show respect for Moscow’s wishes about her leadership and policies at home and abroad.
Such a result would turn the remaining part of Ukraine into a Russian protectorate, which would equivalent to capitulation to a nation that wants to consolidate its democracy and integrate with Europe and the West. The Ukrainians are struggling to prevent it.
The battlefield remains the only way Vladimir Putin could achieve such conditions of capitulation. Although Russian forces continue to notice only limited profits in square miles, their main goal is toThey exhaust the Ukraine army – and the country’s willingness to fight.
After 3.5 years of relentless war, Ukrainian troops are tired, disadvantaged and unhappy with their own generals but continue to resist. And the nature of the war – with drones to dominate more and more – favors the defense against the attack.
“I don’t see the Ukrainian army collapsing. But in a fairly long timetable, we could get to a point where, if Ukraine does not deal with the problems of the creation and management of forces, it may not be defeated on the battlefield, but it will be increasingly exhausted, “said Michael Kofman, a military expert at Carnegie Endowment.
Russia’s advantages in a population, number of troops and financial resources make its war effort to look more viable than Ukraine, most analysts say. ‘But the story of this war shows that Ukraine has been proven customizable and durable“, Kofman said.
Against the odds, Ukraine has so far found ways to extend its resistance and keep the result open.