Hotter than normal is expected to be the Coming September In Eastern and Southeast Europe – including Greece – according to the long -term forecasts issued in early August.
As the available data show, the 83% of predictive scenarios It converges that the average temperature of September will exceed normal for the season, with reference period in 1993–2016.
In detail, the probability of positive divergences between 0 and 1 ° C is up to 42%for divergences between 1 and 2 ° C in 32%while the likelihood of divergences being recorded over 2 ° C reaches the 9%. On the other hand, the chances of negative deviations are clearly smaller: 16% to reduce between 0 and 1 ° C and just 1% for divergences over –1°C.
The average value of the 400 scenarios examined is up to +0,84°C Above the normal levels for the season, which enhances the appreciation for a hottest September in our area.
Distribution of probabilities for the average divergence of September 2025 in SE Europe, according to the 400 long -term forecasts issued in early August. The average value of the 400 priority available is depicted at the upper left end of the graph.
Overall for the European continent, the map of Image 2 depicts average temperature divergence September on the basis of the average price of 400 scenarios. As it turns out, positive deviations are expected throughout the continent, with the highest prices being located in France and Balkans where they go beyond +1°C.
Figure 2. September average temperature divergence map 2025 from the average price of 1993-2016, according to the average price of 400 long-term forecasts issued in early August.
This prognosis is based on overall 400 possible scenarios of the following 8 prognosis centers: ECMWF (Europe), UKMO (UK), Meteo-France (France), Jma (Japan), NCEP (USA), DWD (Germany), CMCC (Italy) and Bom (Australia)as provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Commission. It is emphasized that long -term forecasts are characterized by great uncertainty and aim to assess the trend in the monthly and seasonal evolution of the average weather conditions. In addition, temperature divergences on a daily and local basis due to the effect of any species of weather systems may vary significantly from the average divergence of one month in a wider area.
Prognosis Assessment for July Average Temperature 2025
As for the past Julythe average temperature deviation in SE Europe were +1.61°Cwhile the average price of all the long -term prognosis scenarios issued by June 2025 was +1.04 ° C. As shown in the chart below (Figure 3), the size of the divergence observed had probability of 41% and it was 2the Most Price Field in Long Term Prognosis.
