The meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin It has been discussed on both sides for some time. But why do both sides want to do now, what about the US ultimatum for sanctions in Russia and how do they benefit with a ceasefire in Ukraine?
According to CNN, US President, Donald Trump, he wants to make use of his personality power to achieve an agreementbelieving that Moscow’s six -month -old intransigence can be overcome with a face -to -face meeting with the Kremlin leader. He seems to still believe that the Kremlin can be persuaded to stop the war, despite the fact that Vladimir Putin has recently adopted the maximalist position that the Russian and Ukrainian people are one and that “where a Russian soldier is on his foot,”
Vladimir Putin wants to save time, having already rejected a proposal for unconditional ceasefire from Europe, the US and Ukraine in May, offering two unilateral, short and insignificant pauses instead. His powers are rapidly moving on to the first lines in an attack that can bring him close enough to his goals so that the negotiations in the autumn concern a very different situation in the war.
If the two leaders meet, an obvious US goal is to organize a tripartite summit with Ukraine President Volodimir Zelenski to discuss the end of the war – the same summit figure that Russia rejected in Constantinople. Russia’s purpose is likely to allow Putin to bring Trump back to the orbit of the Russian approach.
However, a summit – that had been proposed in the past but had been postponed – can take place this time, and this raises the question of how the war will end.
The five possible scenarios:
1. Undertakage ceasefire of fire
Is unlikely Putin to agree on a ceasefire with the front lines remaining as they are – the United States, Europe and Ukraine have already called for such a cessation in May, under the threat of sanctions, and Russia rejected it. Trump withdrew The sanctions, preferring low -level conversations in Istanbul, which did not lead anywhere. The 30 -day ceasefire earlier this year against energy infrastructure had limited observance and success.
The Kremlin is currently turning the gradual profits to the forefront into strategic advantages and sees no reason to stop this progress now as it reaches the climax her. Not even the threat of secondary sanctions against China and India – which look resistant to US pressure – will change this immediate military calculation for the rest of the summer. At least until October, Putin will want to fight because he wins.
2. Realism and further conversations
Talks could reach an agreement for more talks later, which would seal Russia’s profits when winter comes, freely freezing the first lines around October.
Putin may have understood the eastern cities of Pokrovsk, Kostiandinovka and Kupansk until then, thus acquiring a stable position to spend the winter and rebuild. Russia will then be able to fight again in 2026 or use diplomacy to make these profits permanently.
It can also raise the issue of elections in Ukraine – which have been postponed to the war and have been a bit of a topic of Trump’s debate – to challenge Zelenski’s legitimacy and even replace him with a more pro -Russian candidate.
3. Ukraine somehow can withstand the next two years
In this scenario, the US and Europe’s military assistance to Ukraine helps her to minimize concessions to the front line in the coming months and leads Putin to pursue negotiations as his army failed once again.
Pokrovsk may fall and other Eastern Ukraine forts may be threatened, but Ukraine could see the Russian “advance” slowing down, as in the past, and the Kremlin could even feel the effects of sanctions and overheating.
European forces have already drawn up advanced plans to develop “assurances” in Ukraine as part of security guarantees. These tens of thousands of NATO European forces could park around Kiev and other major cities, providing logistical and information assistance to Ukraine during its reconstruction, and create a sufficient deterrent so that Moscow decides to leave. This is the best that Ukraine can hope.
And if Putin does not stop And diplomacy fails? The following options are not so clear:
4. Disaster for Ukraine and NATO
Putin could properly distinguish the cracks in the West unity after a summit with Trump that improves US-Russia relationships, but lets Ukraine to take over them alone. Europe could do whatever it can to support Kiev, but without US support it will not be able to change the balance.
Putin could see the small profits in eastern Ukraine turning into a slow defeat of the Ukrainian forces at the level, open territory between Donbas and the central cities of Dnipro, Zaporizia and the capital. Ukrainian defenses could prove to be weak and the Kiev military crisis will turn into a political disaster when Zelensky demands a wider mobilization to support the country’s defense.
Kiev security seems to be is in danger again. Putin’s forces are moving forward. European forces estimate that it would be better to fight Russia in Ukraine than later on the territory of the European Union. However, Europe’s leaders ultimately do not have the political power to participate in a war for territory within Ukraine. Putin is proceeding. NATO fails to give a single answer. This is the nightmare of Europe, but it is already the end of a dominant Ukraine.
5. Destruction for Putin: a repetition of Soviet experience in Afghanistan
Russia could continue to make mistakes, sacrificing thousands of lives soldiers each week, for relatively small benefits, and seeing them sanctions to undermine her alliance with the China and the proceeds from the India.
Financial Reserves of Moscow State Investment Fund could be reduced and her revenue to retreat. The disagreement between the Moscow elite could be increased because of the way the Kremlin rejected diplomatic outputs from the war it chose, in favor of military perseverance and a non -sustainable conflict with NATO.
Trump becomes a ‘glittering“And the US attention after the interim elections returns to the traditional norms of foreign policy that oppose Moscow and its supporter, Beijing.
In this scenario, the Kremlin could be found in a situation where his resistance to the trivial difficulties of reality and the financial difficulties of his people himself would become toxic. Similarly wrong political calculations maintained the ultimately fruitless occupation of Afghanistan by the Soviets in another war of choice. Similar moments of unexpected weakness of the Kremlin have already appeared in the War of Ukraine, such as when Putin’s trustee, Jeveny Prigozinseems to have been involved in a short -lived uprising in the capital.
Putin is strong on the surface until it seems weak – the CNN analysis says – and then it can be exposed as critical weak. This has happened in the past both in expansive Soviet Russia and Putin. The problem with this scenario is that it remains the best hope of Western strategies, which they cannot even accept NATO’s full entry into war To help Ukraine win, nor Kiev’s ability to militarily repel Moscow.
None of the options is good for Ukraine. Only one of them means the real defeat of Russia as a military force and a threat to European security. And none of them can arise from Trump’s meeting with Putin alone, without Ukraine becoming part of any agreement later.