Business sector sales remain on an upward trajectory in the first half of 2025, with a noticeable slowdown at the expense of increasing international pressure, according to the new issue of “Business Trends” of the National Bank’s Economic Analysis Division (ETH).
Under the analysis of the EIB, this international pressure can function not only as an obstacle but also as a window of opportunity -especially for sectors with durability and increasing extroversion, such as food. It can speed up their transition to high value -added industry, through targeted investment in technology and collaborative groups that provide critical mass, economies of scale and steady integration into international value chains.
Starting with the overall performance of the business sector, the sales march in the first quarter of 2025 was positive, with an annual increase of 0.9% (on deflated terms). While the performance was lower than in the previous 12 months (3.2% on defruded terms) at the expense of the difficult international context (geopolitical uncertainty, US aggressive tariff policy), gradual improvement is expected for the rest of the year.
This assessment is supported by (i) the positive expectations of business (June confidence index higher than medium -term average), ii) the first indications for the 2nd quarter and ii) the 15% tariff agreement to European exports to the US (limiting the uncertainty of adverse scenarios). Under these circumstances, we expect a total performance of 2025 of 2.3% on deflated terms (compared to 3% in 2024). Investments in IT and Construction sectors (with deceleration due to institutional uncertainties) are expected to remain a basic support, while mild positive performance is expected in industry and trade, which are more affected by turmoil in international trade.
In this mild performance environment, the food and beverage industry stands out for its dynamics, recording a +3.1% increase in deflationed terms in the last six months, clearly exceeding the rest of the industry ( +1.5% respectively). This superiority comes as a natural continuation of a gradual strategy of empowering over the last 25 years, with sales remaining durable – with mild fluctuations – even in recession. At the same time, in the last decade it has made significant progress in critical indicators:
- Bin extroversion is constantly improving, reaching ¼ of sales today, from 13% from 2001-2014. He now approaches the European average (deviation of 2 percentage points, from 8 at the beginning of 25 years) and has even become more strategic in the last five years (as it is no longer motivated by the need to replace weak internal demand).
- At the same time, the financial image of the industry in the last decade is improved, with the asset index being almost twice as pre -crisis (3.9%, from 2.2%before the crisis, converging on the European average (4.6%).
In the medium term, international demand for Greek food is a strategic advantage. The context is critical, with a growing geopolitical instability, uncertainty in international trade (US tariff policy, non-favorable euro-dollar exchange rate) and EU budget rearrangements (emphasis on defense and innovation, instead of subsidies and development programs). These challenges must act as catalysts for the next jump of the industry. In particular, the medium -term potential development of the industry can be based on two main axes:
- First, reinforcement of the added value offered by manufacturing to agricultural production, which currently reaches only 46%, compared to 60%in the EU. Convergence with the European average could deliver 2 billion euros of additional value added (+32%).
- Secondly, enhancing the productivity of the primary sector (per acre), which is now remaining by about 11% against the EU. Medium -term convergence and at this level could increase the total value of the industry by € 3 billion (+50%).
In order to be able to absorb increased production (40-60% rise in sales), simultaneous enhancement of extroversion is required: in 31% of short-term sales and 41% in the medium term-percentages compatible with other small but strong exporting European economies.
The transition to this new productive model requires coordinated structural interventions. Based on the EIB model, the main parameters linked to the transition to a high value -added agri -food sector are i) the enhancement of research and development (precision agriculture, processing technology, standardization) and ii) the creation of collaboration (clusters, cooperatives) to achieve economies. In a time of commercial intensity, international volatility and rearrangement of European funding priorities, the Food and Beverage industry has the opportunity – and not just the opportunity – to transform into a structural growth lever for the Greek economy.
The study can be found in the Website of the National Bank Groupin the Economic Studies and Analyzes (Greek Entrepreneurship Category).