Tougher strategy against Turkey The Greek government adopts, finding 19 months after the signing of the Athens Declaration that Ankara is not willing to take the next step to resolve the difference in the continental shelf delimitation. Turkey is trying to take advantage of the approach process so that the “calm waters” are considered to be the … return for Greece’s voluntary abstinence from the exercise of its basic sovereign rights.
Athens, in the midst of a particularly fluid international environment, which favors the search for a strong regional role for Turkey and with the tolerance even displayed by European partners due to its upgraded strategic role, is adjusting its strategy with the aim of exercising its sovereign rights. This is done so that, so far, the intensity and escalation of the field are avoided, something that Athens does not want for many reasons.
All the more so when Donald Trump does not belong to leaders who are particularly calculating the arguments on international law and law of the sea, but has a more trading, business-oriented perception even about resolving transnational differences and crises.
Greek -Turkish relations have been marked over the last three decades by four major Turkish movements: the declaration of Casus Belli (1995) for the possibility of expanding Greece’s territorial waters to 12 nm, the emergence of the “Gray Zone” theory (1996). Deposit of coordinates for the external boundaries of the Turkish EEZ at the bounds of the “blue homeland” (2020).
Mitsotakis interview
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, in an interview with SKAI last Wednesday, presented the framework that the government is now approaching the Greek -Turkish:
“Greece is not discussing with Turkey. Greece is never going to accept any ‘gray zone’ theory and will never accept Turkey to indicate what to do or what we will not do within areas of Greek sovereignty. “
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The prime minister renounced the “doctrine of immobility” in Greek -Turkish, leaving spikes for Karamanlis’s rule, and defended the policy of “calm waters”, but noted that without resolving the difference in the demarcation of the continental plans.
Indeed, he did not avoid even referring to the problems even for the stinging of the Supreme Cooperation Council (initially scheduled for January), referring to a meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the General Assembly.
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Athens is now putting its burden on promoting measures and decisions that declare sovereign rights, despite Ankara’s objections, warnings and threats, but avoiding initiatives that could give Turkey the opportunity to cause even a warm crisis.
In an overall context, these moves include: signing the partial EEZ delineation agreement with Egypt, the EEZ Agreement with Italy, the expansion of territorial waters to 12 nm. In the Ionian Sea, the formation of the framework for maritime spatial planning (its final form and deposition in the Commission is still pending), the announcement of a competition for the licensing of plots south of Crete and the Southeast Cyclades Maritime Park.
The government thus states that it does not intend to abstain from the exercise of sovereign rights as long as there is no agreement with Turkey or Libya for sea zonesand at the same time it is branding the area of Greek interests under the law of the sea.
Obviously, the possibility of an incident, without being excluded, seems remote, even in the event of an environmental plan to the islands including the marine park or due to the prohibition of fishing in it (which also concerns 6 nm territorial waters). Even the launch of investigations, if the process proceeds with Chevron on plots south of Crete, can cause diplomatic reactions From Libya, but will hardly legalize Turkey to take action.
China and Levitha
It is equally difficult to justify the international community a straight Turkish practical challenge of Greek sovereignty in the cluster of Kinaros and Levitha islands, east of Amorgos.
Athens is now awaiting the announcement on behalf of Turkeyof its own marine parks, which will follow the engravings of the map of the Turkish marine spatial planning. It will be found, at first, how much Ankara wants to pull the rope and whether it will attempt to include rocky islands in which it challenges Greek domination or maritime areas potentially belonging to Greece, which will obviously cause strong reaction and tensions.
However, the crucial test is the investigations of the Cyprus -Crete electric interconnection cable.
Last July, in this practical exercise of Greece’s sovereign rights, Turkey militarized the tension by sending warships. In the cable case, Turkey is attempting indirect recognition of jurisdiction in an area that characterizes a “Turkish continental shelf”, demanding the issuance of the relevant NAVTEX by the Antalya station.
A year later, and despite the efforts made at the many meetings of George Gerapetritis and Hakan Fidan, no “technical” arrangement was found to allow the work to be continued. And this creates a serious pending, not only with political and diplomatic, but also with serious economic dimensions.
With Libya, the Greek Government, albeit with a long delay and under the pressure of unilateral deposition by Tripoli of the Libyan EEZ’s external boundaries, which is an application of the Turkish -tornado Memorandum and overlaps a significant part of the Greek continental shelf, as is unilaterally defined by Greece under Law 4001/2011.
Thus, the Turkolibyyan memorandum (as has been the case with plots southeast of Crete) on the Libyan side of the demarcation, is in fact questioned.
The Libyan reaction
Of course, how Libya will react to the dramatic situation in which the country is located will be seen when investigations begin in these areas and if the time comes at some point. drill. Then it will find out whether Tripoli chooses to re -appeal to Ankara for help.
However, the fact that Libya is currently seeking foreign investors and foreign petroleum companies, including Chevron, as well as other US and European companies, makes it difficult to cause a crisis through Turkey’s invitation to do so.
But as long as the pending remains, it will be an “open front” for Greece. Athens’ attempt to start negotiations for a demarcation agreement or referral to The Hague both with Tripoli and with Benghazi, which was presented during his visits by the Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis (where, as Mr Mitsotakis said, there will be no technicians soon).
Libya insists that any procedure should be done by the Turkolibyan memorandum, which Athens categorically rejects.
There is, of course, the choice of referring the case to the International Court of Justice, with, among other things, the request to rule on the legality of the Memorandum.
For the time being, however, and given the political situation in Libya, it is extremely difficult to make progress in such talks. On the one hand, because the two sides in Libya are engaged in bidding, on the other, because there is virtually no reliable and legally valid interlocutor with whom a agreement or co -operation could proceed.
The next period will be engaged to the UN the Greek verbal which will respond to the two corresponding Libyan and give a comprehensive answer: both for the Turkish Memorandum and for the unilateral claim of Libya on the continental shelf south of Crete.
There will also be answers to individual issues raised, such as: the Hellenic Italian EEZ delineation agreement, the expansion of the Ionian territorial waters to 12 nm, the rejection of Tripoli’s claim that the islands are not entitled to influence in marine zones and the closure of the sea.
Of course, there will also be an extensive presentation of the reasons that make, in addition to illegal, the Turkish Memorandum irrational. This text, which is carefully prepared, will essentially be Athens’ starting position in any negotiation with Libya.
Athens is continuing its efforts to freeze the process of ratification of the Tourkolibyan Memorandum by Parliament to Tobrouk, while the planning of the visit of the President of the House, Akila Saleh, is still pending, as Ankara’s friendship is underway.
Close cooperation
However, since Libya has also turned against Egypt to the issue of marine zones, the opportunity to develop even more closest cooperation with Cairo to tackle these destabilizing movements that are being urged by Ankara is being developed.
Ms Mitsotakis and Abdel Fatah al -Sisi in their recent telephone conversation emphasized the importance of continuing the cooperation and coordination of the two countries in issues related to marine zones in the Eastern Mediterranean, for the benefit of security and stability in the area.
Another open front is the one in the EU, where Turkey, promoting its geopolitical burden and its reinforced war industry, is seeking the detour to accelerate Euro -Turkish relations.
In terms of Europe’s re -equipment program, however, Athens, as the Greek Prime Minister has clarified, will not accept agreements with Turkey that will allow it to participate in 65% of the project, as long as the challenges of Greek domination remain on the table.
And this effort should also be addressed by the attitude of several partners who have positively seeing its neighbor’s involvement in European defense, as shown in the latest developments with the market for 40 Eurofighter Typhoon from Turkey.