Alarming signs which if shaped in trend will be a threat to rhythms growthare the June elements published by Plum in its monthly report on consumption.
The Fintech Plum company in its report, Monthly Unwrapped, measuring the guidelines taken by private consumption taking into account the banking transactions made by its customers, detects a sharp decline in spending that does nothing good for Greek development.
The reduction in accounts was significant (-41%), while supermarkets (-4%) and transfers (-23%) recorded milder downward trends.
Optional expenses were in the same tone. The largest reductions compared to May were recorded in the personal care and fitness categories (-50%), catering (-50%) and clothing and accessories (-45%).
As stated in the report, “this reflects not only economic uncertainty but also an increasing economic awareness.”
It is worth noting that these reductions are recorded despite the fact that June is a month of the tourist season and consumption is gained from increased travelers’ costs.
If the tendency is confirmed as such by official data and continued or intensified in the autumn months, then the obstacles that will arise in the achievement of growth goals will be significant.
‘Blood donor’ of growth the consumption
And this is because a key factor that has led to high growth rates the Greek economy is private consumption. According to the quarterly national accounts by ELSTAT, GDP rise by 2.2% in the first quarter came from the total final consumer spending, which increased 1.6%, with household consumption increased by 1.9% and that of the general government of 0.7%.
Indeed, all official estimates for the near future presuppose high growth of strong private consumption.
The latter is the report of the Financial Council, which provides for growth of up to 2.3% for 2025. The driving levers are first – first to private consumption.
In its spring report, the Commission predicts that actual private consumption will increase by 1.5% in 2025, with aid in 2026, the Bank of Greece expects an increase of 2% per year for the period 2025 – 2027, the International Monetary Fund speaks of a consistently strong private consumption of private consumption, and the Ministry Consumption +1.8% in 2025.
Much will be judged by autumn onwards. In September, the TIF package appears to have locked around € 1.5 billion, and no downward changes are expected. However, the summer uncertainty amid on the midst of continuing negotiations on duties between the US and the EU has already begun to leave its imprint on consumer moods.
And this is still at the level of consumer psychology and not the reality of the … wallet, as the trade war is still “in anticipation” and we have not seen its material consequences at the level of exports, current transactions and public revenue balances, and therefore on the finances of the households.
Based on existing scenarios, at best European exports (along with Greek) will be charged with 15%duties, at worst with 30%paving the way for even greater escalation as no agreement has been reached. And the above, without taking into account the constant geopolitical dangers and their effects.