Four times more defensive costs Compared to those budgeted by Brussels for EU member states by 2035, the commitment they have made to the last meeting of NATO (24 – 25 June 2025).
As the European Defense Commissioner himself, the Andrian button, said – speaking on Monday (21.7.2025) at a European Defense Night event in Washington – to reach European countries the defensive spending limit decided by NATO, ie at 3.5% of GDP (5%). spending the astronomical amount 4.2 trillion. euro by 2035.
It is recalled that the program REME EU 2030approved by the EU Summit on March 19, 2025, provided for the possibility of generally defensive (not only equipment) costs just… 800 billion euros by 2030through the activation of the escape clause and the Safe Defense Fund, while the Commission’s proposal for the new Community budget of 2028 – 2034 still provides (at least) € 131 billion.
In other words, achieving the new NATO target imposes the quadruple of defense spending of European countries in relation to the bar set by Rearmeu 2030 and the new Community budget (€ 4.2 trillion versus at least € 931 billion).
“NATO European members agreed to spend 3.5% of GDP on real defense. Let us look deeper into this economic perspective. My prediction is that European Member States will spend on average approximately 3% of GDP in the period 2028 – 2035. This means – about 600 billion euros per year or 4.2 trillion. euro during the entire period of 2028 – 2035 »exactly the button on the side of the Commission said.
Button: 2 out of 4.2 trillion. euro for equipment will go to the US – let’s not ‘complain’
He added that “We can predict that about 50% of this amount (2 trillion euros) will be spent on actual investment in defense equipment. Member States will spend their defensive money where they will decide. This will not be regulated by the Commission. Member States can be supplied by the US, South Korea or Ukraine, not only by the EU, and this is their dominant decision. “.
The Community Defense Commissioner explains why he points out the above: “Because we sometimes hear complaints from our transatlantic partners, that Europeans will no longer get American weapons. There is no basis for complaints from the US industry that they will be banned from participating in European conventions. Member States will spend 2 trillion. to what they decide. I guess – quite in the US, as European countries are already spending in the US about 40% of their national defense money. While Americans supply only 1% of their weapons from European industries, despite the fact that European production is very competitive and able to win other countries against US competitors. “
The Combilius also gave other details of the forthcoming European markets: “US industries should not worry that during 2028 – 2035 the Commission will implement an EDIP programs to support the European Defense Industry, which is our legitimate interest. The total perennial budget for such support will be less than 100 billion for the entire 2028 – 2035 period. There is no reason for Americans to complain of Edip’s orientation in European industry, as the $ 100 billion for the EU defense program is 20 times less than 2 trillion. euro of national defense spending, which will remain completely uncontrollable. In addition, we must remember that US Defense Industry will also be able to participate in Safe or EDIP programs In the same way that other third countries are ready to participate, such as Great Britain or Canada. There are clear rules for these programs and our partners apply them. “
And continued giving one more stigma: “The biggest challenge for the defense industry on both sides of the Atlantic will not be to receive orders from European governments. Because large orders will come. The biggest challenge will be to fulfill these orders. And to produce massively and in time. From the European point of view, as I see it, US Defense Industry only has one problem in Europe and this is called ITAR. The rules that put potential restrictions on the use of US weapons. And the problem is related to the European perception of American credibility. If Putin’s armies come, we cannot get into battle with the possibility of our hands behind our backs. That is why European defense companies are already going to Member States using inventive marketing. They sell defensive products by saying that the product is “without itar”. It’s like selling soft drinks: “No Sugar” or “Hatless Citizens” crisps. “
The button suggests that “Europeans should not accuse Americans of asking us to take responsibility for European defense. Americans should not accuse us of wanting to strengthen the European defense industry in order to assume this responsibility. For this reason, my most important message today is very simple. I see the strategic need for both sides to have a rational dialogue and agreement on a timetable and tasks, which we both need to apply so that Europe is ready to take responsibility on its shoulders. For such an agreed plan, we must have a clear understanding of what US potential they now provide for Europe’s security, we need to replace, at what time and how much it will cost. Such an agreed plan will allow us to avoid any misunderstandings or unexpected developments in the future. “