His appreciation for development at +2.2% for 2025 keeps the IOBEaccording to his quarterly report on the Greek economy, presented today. For 2026, IOBE estimates growth at +2.4%.
The unemployment rate, according to IOBE estimates, is expected to be 9.3% in 2025 and 9% in 2026. The rate of change in the DGC was 2.5% in the first half of 2025 (3.1% for the ENTK), from a rise of 2.8% (3% for ETK). Price is mainly due to the positive effect of domestic demand, with increases in services such as housing, accommodation and focus.
The IOBE estimates that prices will be maintained on a milder upward trajectory, with inflation rate in the region of 2.8% in 2025 and in the region of 2.3% in 2026, mainly due to consumer demand. However, recent developments in the global environment at the political and geopolitical level cause uncertainty.
Concerning the components, it expects maintaining its development potential, but with a milder degree, as, despite the remarkable increase in public consumption (+1.2%), private consumption is projected to slow down (+1%). Standing investments (+9.0%) are expected to benefit from the acceleration of TAA implementation and the lowest cost of money, but under conditions and risks arising from the external environment.
The external deficit, which also involves structural characteristics, is expected to be maintained, perhaps expanded, mainly due to the extension of global uncertainty, which in turn makes it difficult for both exports (+2.9%) and imports (+3.1%), raising challenges.
As noted, in the banking system, among the positive trends, the high credit expansion continued to businesses, the demand for loan from businesses and households has been resolved, the credit shrinkage to households was diminished, while the cost of public and private borrowing is deviated.
Private deposits record a mild growth course, while the interest rate margin has decreased, but it remains high. Among the negative trends and challenges in the financial system, the banks’ exposure to government bonds is higher than other European countries and the percentage of red loans outside the banking balance sheets remains high.
The timely and effective implementation of the loan leg of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan is an opportunity to finance productive investment in favorable terms.
At the presentation of the report, IOBE President Yiannis Retsos referred to the continued positive course of the Greek economy, with the contribution of activity to areas such as tourism and industry, while stressing the need to stimulate investment in infrastructure in order to be able to continue.
At the same time, IOBE General Manager, Professor Nikos Vettas, pointed out that domestic growth dynamics was maintained, but also highlighted significant challenges for the Greek economy in a short and medium-sized horizon. Among other things, he noted:
- The risks from the outside environment are reinforced and create a fluid frame that discourages productive investment and long -term design. Among the short -term economic effects, new inflationary pressures are emerging, a decrease in world economy growth and volatility in international financial markets.
- The direction of economic policy internationally raises questions. On the one hand, the extent and intensity of new commercial protectionism and US options is uncertain. On the other hand, the challenges on the budgetary balance, the role of monetary policy and the stability of the US dollar are intensifying.
- War clashes are ongoing, with importance beyond the narrow economic context. The systematic need for higher defense spending and greater emphasis on the military field is a burden on economies with already limited fiscal space.
- In the domestic economic environment, the dynamics of growth is maintained, with robust consumption and a continuing increase in employment. Under conditions, the Greek economy is expected to be slightly accelerated in 2026, with the contribution of the lowest money costs, the implementation of the recovery and resilience plan and the expected recovery in the eurozone.
- Inflation is a challenge, with a higher average rate in the eurozone, as it causes losses in the purchasing power of households and business competitiveness.
- The new world trade map creates opportunities as opportunities are presented to expand exports to higher value chains.
- Investments remain key to achieving long -term growth rates, for the formation of higher incomes in the future, with quantitative and qualitative features that promote innovation and extroversion.
- At the same time, the priorities of the tax system are useful to aim to boost long, innovative and productive investment as well as to enhance systematic labor and human capital. In this regard, it is a priority to remove excessive charges in the wage labor in order to alleviate the relevant anti-motion for work and for better distribution of resources.