The biggest one expected was the increase in job to United States of Americain June 2025, enhanced by public recruitment, as the labor market showed stunning durability and probably pulled out of the table a reduction in interest rates in July.
Out -of -agricultural jobs increased seasonally 147,000 for the month, higher than estimation for 110,000 and just above the revised up to 144,000 in May, according to the US statistical service today (3.7.25). April’s report also saw a slight upward revision, now at 158,000 after an increase of 11,000.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest of February and against a forecast for a slight increase to 4.3%. A more comprehensive rate that includes discouraged workers and those who hold part -time jobs for financial reasons fell to 7.7%.
Although unemployment rates have declined, this is mainly due to the reduction of those who work or seek work.
The percentage of participation in the workforce decreased to 62.3%, the lowest level since the end of 2022, due to the increase of 329,000 those not counted in the workforce. Research on households, which is used to calculate unemployment rate, has increased by just 93,000 people. The ranks of those who had not sought work in the last four weeks were inflated by 234,000 to 1.8 million.
Stock contracts have maintained a positive sign after the report, while state bond yields have increased abruptly at a meeting that will be completed early in the face of the holidays of Independence on Friday in the US.
The July increase was almost exactly the same as the annual average of 146,000.
“A stable June job report confirms that the labor market remains decisive and closes the door to a reduction in interest rates in July,” said Jeff Schulze, head of the market’s economic and strategy at Clearbridge Investments. “Today’s good news should be treated as such by markets, with shares growing despite the accompanying interest rates.”
Along with the steady increase in wage costs and the decline in unemployment rate, average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% for the month and by 3.7% over a year ago, indicating low upward pressure on wage -related inflation. The average weekly work was slightly lower at 34.2 hours.
Government employment has increased, leading all charges with an increase of 73,000, due to the steady reinforcement of recruitment to state and local authorities, especially in education -related jobs, which increased by 40,000. The federal government, which still feels the impact of cuts by the Elon Musk government efficiency department, lost 7,000.
In addition, healthcare was again strong, adding 39,000, while social assistance contributed to 19,000.
Construction increased by 15,000 and manufacturing lost 7,000. Most other areas showed a slight change.
“The US labor market continues to stand high and firmly, even when the opposite winds grow – but it can be a scene that is being kept more and less than fewer poles,” wrote Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab. “Increasing jobs in the title and the stunning decline in unemployment is undoubtedly good news, but for seeking jobs outside the healthcare and social assistance, local government and public education, profits are likely to sound hollow.”
The payroll report comes with a more intense focus on where the Fed is heading with monetary policy, as there are increasingly evidence of labor market slowdown, while President Donald Trump’s duties have so far had a sluggish impact on inflation.
In related news, the Ministry of Labor also said on Thursday that initial unemployment applications for the week ended on June 28th declined to 233,000, a reduction of 4,000 and below the estimate of 240,000.
Trump demanded from the Fed to reduce its reference rate, which has been stable in a range of between 4.25% -4.5% since December. Along with that, the president uploaded the tones Wednesday, saying in a post on Truth Social that Powell “should resign immediately”. For his part, Powell has kept a cautious tone in politics. In his appearance on Tuesday, the head of the Central Bank said that while at each meeting there is the possibility of reducing interest rates at the table, the power of the US economy provides time for the evaluation of incoming data.
Market pricing was heavily shifted after payroll report, with traders almost removing from the table the chance of reducing interest rates in July. The chances of a July move decreased to 4.7%, from 23.8% on Wednesday, according to CME Group’s Fedwatch. The market continues to see that the next reduction will not come before September and also overturned expectations for three total reductions this year, with the possibility of being reduced to two.
There were some speculations before the report that a weak number was likely, with the private ADP payroll service on Wednesday reporting 33,000. However, the BLS report showed an increase of 74,000 in this category.
Those who received jobs were strongly entitled to full -time positions, which increased by 437,000. Part -time workers decreased by 367,000.