In about 41 billion euros, the head of the Budget office of the State in Parliament (GPKB) Professor Ioannis Tsoukalas, the height of underlying In Greece, a size corresponding to 27% of the consumer spending of households, which according to ELSTAT amounts to € 151 billion, of which only € 110 billion is declared as income.
“Something is missing,” the head of the budget office noted, explaining that the difference does not result from savings, nor is it related to any investment explosion. On the contrary, it reflects the extent of the economy in our country which is estimated to range between 16% and 18% of GDP (reached 230 billion euros in 2023).
The main feeder of the loser is the loser – for the state – VAT. According to the GPC, the so -called “vacuum” VAT, that is, the distance between the debt and the truly received amount, reaches 13.7% (official data of 2022), compared to 4% – 7% in other European countries. To achieve convergence (from the 10% of the “vacuum” today), additional yield of more than € 1 billion per year is required, without new measures but with better tax compliance.
He notes that VAT receipts are ‘running’ at twice as high as budget forecasts, and for the first time this year all new digital weapons and tax evasion measures (Mydata, POS, electronic pricing, digital clientele, digital work card, etc.) will be applied.
Achieving a new reduction in VAT vacuum (already saved about € 2 billion a year with the prospect of reaching 3 billion euros) is opening to Mr Tsoukalas the road to new tax breaks in 2027, beyond those to be announced this year at the TIF.
For the benefits of 2026, the government has already secured a € 1.5 billion fiscal space, which will have to be allocated for direct tax cuts “mainly for employees”, said the head of the GCB, who recommends the government to redesign the tax scale as it presents two basic arrhythmias:
- In the income step from 10,001 euros to 20,000 euros where the tax rate is launched to 22% from 9% applied for incomes of up to 10,000 euros, and
- At the maximum tax rate of 44% which is imposed on the part of the income exceeding 40,000 euros, which is considered relatively low.
The head of the office is in favor of tax relief of wage labor by rejecting reductions in indirect taxes that do not favor consumers as they almost always end up in the “intermediate pockets”.
Referring to other major issues of the economy, Mr. Tsoukalas spoke:
– For delays in the implementation of the Public Investment Program (RIP) and for the inability to fully absorb the resources of the Recovery and Resilience Fund.
According to him, the key obstacles to attracting private investment remain chronic arrhythmias: issues of justice, property protection, licensing and overall operation framework. Although he acknowledged that investment in mechanical equipment over the last 6-7 years are “strong”, he pointed out the need for more investment in construction and storage infrastructure in the energy sector.
– For household deposits he stressed that while they had increased until early 2024lately have been stagnant. It links the issue to fatigue in private consumption and the decline of retail trade, depending on international developments.
Consumer expenditure is expected to increase at a rate of 1.5% to 2% in 2025, thanks to the good image of the labor market, where salaries show a 4% -5% increase. However, tourism, the main feeder of consumption, shows fatigue tendencies in the middle expense per visitor, which is reduced by about 1%this year, despite the increase in arrivals.
– For hospital debts and conviction by the European Court of Justice, he noted that they were increasing mainly due to rebate and clawback in the health sector.. The relevant “fez” is estimated at around € 300 million, an amount estimated to be covered. He did not fail, however, to emphasize the responsibilities of the “cumbersome public sector” which is delaying payments.