The recent conflict between Israel and Iran, just 12 days, It caused a global alarm for unexpected consequences and brought the planet to the brink of a regional ignition. However, the unexpected attack and – more so – the strikingly “round” end of the crisis – the so -called “Trump truce” – combined with the way politically capitalized by him Donald Trump, give birth to reasonable questions: Was it really a real conflict or is it a well -directed geopolitical theater to get Trump the winner’s laurels?
After the US bombed Iran’s three nuclear facilities, even describing the blows “spectacular” Trump declared complete and total truce. “Congratulations to the world, it’s time for peace!”Trump wrote on Truth Social, stating that the “12 -day war” ended with complete success. And he added with a characteristic certainty that “the truce will last forever”.
“I think the truce is unlimited. Will last forever ”, Donald Trump told the NBC News on Monday night, predicting that Israel and Iran “will never exist again.” Did we finally watch a geopolitical show on Trump on a direct broadcast?
However, he notes in its analysis the cnnthe truce in the Middle East are often fragile.
Nevertheless, President Trump promotes himself as a pacifist and downtrodden negotiator – just 48 hours Since US bombers Stealth had hit goals in Iran.
Hand -handed truce
Trump, with her Operation “Midnight Hammer” and the bombing of uranium enrichment facilities in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan, achieved an impressive military blow without human casualties for the US, while at the same time giving up Israel’s implicit consensus and promoted, through Qatar, an atypical ceasefire.
So he closed the mouths to those who accuse him of dragging the US into a war in which he had no job to get involved by Netanyahu.
But what did Trump have to win?
Donald Trump, with the familiar – now – style of surprise movements, now appears as the leader who not only avoided a new “eternal conflict” in the Middle East, but also redefined the narrative of American power through the doctrine of “Make America Great”.
In addition, the US president It seems to win – at least for the time being – the inner audience. Republicans who were pushing for a strong attitude towards Iran – but not for new war adventures – see a leader who struck and then stopped.
Simply put, Trump’s promotion as a pacifist was not based on diplomatic events, but on communication of chaos.
The speed of de -escalation, the almost symbolic nature of the blows, the absence of huge losses, and the solemn proclamation of a victory by Trump, make up a scene reminiscent of one well -built show, rather than spontaneous conflict.
What is the following for Israel and Iran
Is Trump trusts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop attacks on Iran?
Did the US, as Trump claimed, manage to “eliminate” Iran’s nuclear program, the “existential threat” to Israel?
What is the end of Israel and the war in Gaza, where the drama of civilians continues unabated in the shadow of the last conflict? Will Iran unveil from the theocratic regime and come a political spring for the Middle East?
Or maybe all this is one Trump’s classic firework And the next, deeper crisis is at the forefront? He wonders, among other things, CNN.
However, according to US media, Donald Trump seems to have come out victorious and fixture From the worst crisis in the US relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
He took a big risk, which many considered dangerous: that he could hit Iran’s nuclear facilities without sinking the US into a new Iraq “swamp”.
So far, it seems to be justified. Although he initially seemed to hesitate in front of Israel’s aggression, which seemed to be trapped, Trump took control and found the opportunity to cause a serious blow to Tehran’s nuclear program at a minimum cost for the US. His strategy – which seemed risky – He finally came out.
He was lucky, but he also showed determination. And of course, the familiar Trump did not miss the opportunity to celebrate the bold mission of the B-2 bombers from Missouri.
If the crisis is dumped, Trump can obtain political benefits, At least within the Republican Party. Also, he may heal the rift on the basis of Maga, which had begun to worry that he had violated his promise not to get involved in new wars.
The crisis even revealed who is Trump’s close circle of confidence. Among them Chief of General Staff, General Dan Caine, the CIA Director John Ratcliff and Special Envoy Steve Witten. On the contrary, the future of Director of National Intelligence Service Talsi Gabard and his defense minister Pitt Hegsheth It seems uncertain.
Trump appears determined to try again a diplomatic solution with Iran. However, she also showed that she is willing to use overwhelming military power – denying her image “Taco diplomacy” (Trump Always Chickens Out).
Triumph or tragic naivety
Despite the festivals, Trump’s management brought to the forefront and serious questions.
He was involved in a military operation without informing the American people, and politicized the mission, excluding the Democrats from decision -making. He ignored the role of Congress, confirming his contempt for institutions and his role as president of all Americans.
It has not yet publicized the secret information it was supposed to have proven that Iran was “weeks away” from the construction of a nuclear bomb – while the US intelligence services themselves had not identified such a decision by Tehran.
Trump also ignored the US allies and mocked their peacekeeping efforts – another indication that the United States is coming into a new era, released from their alliances and with unique in their own interestwrites CNN.
At the same time the crucial question remains unanswered: What about Iran’s nuclear program?
Trump, in a profession he had held late Saturday night, had stated that the aim of the attack was “the destruction of any Iranian nuclear enrichment capacity”.
Early estimates report serious damage to the Iranian facilities hit but it is too early for Trump festivities.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Service, Rafael Grossi, told CNN that Iran had already had ‘Protect’ 400 kg of uranium enriched at 60% – Just below 90% required for the construction of a nuclear bomb.
At the same time, Trump hopes the attacks will bring Tehran back to the negotiating table for a new deal.
But many estimate that the message the Iranian leadership received is the opposite: to resort to the only way of survival of the regime that is none other than A nuclear bomb capable of preventing all future threats.
‘From the prism of a nuclear non -propagation, the Trump decision was a reckless escalation which probably brings Iran closer to the acquisition of nuclear weapons, “commented Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association.
According to her, Iran had the time to carry the heaven to a secret location – which is considered possible.
Specialist Joseph Sinincione told CNN that it was impossible to “bomb” Iran’s knowledge or stock. He warned that with the materials it maintains, Tehran can make the first bomb within five days and ten in total within three weeks.
“This is what worries me the most. Is Iran running to complete the construction before the celestial is detected or the US or Israel can destroy it? “
If these scenarios are confirmed, then Trump’s “triumph” will prove to be a tragic naivety – and possibly the beginning of something even more dangerously bigger.