In spite of the US entry into the war conflict in Middle East and air strikes in Iranian nuclear facilities, international markets They appear – if anything – restrained.
While such a geopolitical ignition event in the Middle East under normal conditions would cause a wave of fluidizations and a massive shift to safe shelters, investors in world markets seem to evaluate the crisis as controlled, with limited systemic consequences.
The MSCI World World Index records a marginal flexion of 0.12% in Monday’s transactions (23.06.2025), while secure investment options are mixed: Japanese yen fell 0.64% against the dollar, gold is also slightly down 0.23%. This reaction is in stark contrast to the original dip of the markets during Israel’s first attack on Iran, a few days earlier.
According to CNBC, Wedbush’s Dan Evs estimates that markets see the targeted US attack as a “redemption” of the risk of Iranian nuclear threat, which removes the possibility of an uncontrolled escalation. “We believe that the risk of spreading the war in the wider area is limited and this is already valued at Risk Assets,” he said.
The next crucial question is how Tehran will react. The Iranian Foreign Ministry warned that his country “maintains all the potential open”, while state media reported that parliament has approved the closure of the strait – the marine artery from which about 20 million barrels pass daily. This is considered by many analysts as the worst possible scenario for purchases: if it happens, oil prices will immediately exceed $ 100 a barrel, shares will be over 10% pressure and capital will move massively to secure shelters.
However, the majority of experts are downgrading the likelihood of this threat. Peter Bukvar of Bleakley Financial notes that “if Iran accepts the end of its military nuclear program, then the incident can end here and the markets will continue uninterruptedly.” Strategic analyst Mark Papic from Geomacro Strategy was even more categorical: “Iran knows that the closure of the Ormuz would have an overwhelming response from the US, but also from the Gulf states whose interests would be directly influenced.”
This is not the first time Tehran has threatened to exclude the hormoz. Similar statements were made in 2011–2012, as well as in 2018 when the US left the nuclear program. However, they have never gone through rhetoric in practice, an element that markets are now integrating as their main scenario.
Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, even maintains his optimism for US markets. He estimates that Trump has reinforced the deterrent power of the US and reaffirmed the doctrine of “peace through power”, anticipating the S&P 500 at 6,500 points by the end of 2025. Although he admits that the prediction of geopolitical developments in the Middle East is extremely precarious, he considers that the destruction of Iranian infrastructure.
Investors, therefore, seem to – at least for the time being – are reading military involvement as an event with limited duration and relatively defined limits. Given that the market tends to evaluate the prospect and less the loud timing, the geopolitical crisis has not so far translated into panic.
However, as many point out, this narrative can change from one moment to another. Tehran remains a variable with historically unpredictable behavior. If the reflexes of the international community do not remain tuned, then the calmness of the markets will be tested in the truth. Until then, Wall Street remains more durable than many would expect.