The scenario of exclusion of Hormone From Iran he returns to the world agenda with a “click” and with serious threats to international and Greek economyafter the American military involvement in Israel -Iran war.
Although markets, for the time being, keep their temper in general, the escalation of the crisis and a total closure of the straits of Ormuz brings closer to the possibility of a new energy shock, which, although global, will feel the Greek economy. directly, strong and at multiple levels.
The straits of Ormuz, the sea passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, are the vital energy corridor of the planet. A huge volume of oil and by -products pass daily from the narrow width of just 55 kilometers. According to data from the Power Information Service, 2024 corresponded to one fifth of the world offer. Daily, about 20 of the 22.8 million barrels of oil produced by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar use this passage. Iran itself also uses it, with daily oil traditions of nearly three million barrels. A barrel fits 159 liters.
Following the US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, investors are now watching the straits of the hormone as the significant sea route can soon be closed by Iran. Iranian state media reported on Sunday (22.06.2025) that Parliament has already approved such a step. What is still lacking is the vote by the National Security Council. This is chaired by the top leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Goldman Sachs Investment Bank estimates that the price of oil could amount to more than $ 100 per barrel if the strait of the Ormuz is closed for a long period of time. JP Morgan analysts even predict Raise the price of oil to $ 120 in an extreme case.
Sandra Navidi, founder of the New York -based New York Analysis Company, warns that a prolonged blockade “could lead the world economy to recession”.
This is due to the fact that there is no real alternative to navigation through the strait of the Ormuz for most suppliers, analysts of Ing Investment Bank explain. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have limited options to switch to the slow oil-east pipeline through the Arabian peninsula and the Abu Dhabi crude pipeline. “However, the former leads to the Red Sea, which has already been bypassed,” Ing says. Rocket fires by Houthi militia have been causing significant risks there for months.
Hapag Lloyd shipping company, based in Hamburg, closely monitors the situation: “We still travel through the strait of Ormuz, but of course the situation can change within a very short time,” a spokesman said.
If the strait is closed, the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will also be at risk. Qatar, the third largest exporter of liquefied natural gas in the world, carries more than 100 billion cubic meters of this energy source through the narrow each year, which corresponds to about a fifth of international liquefied natural gas trade.
As Qatar plans to increase its capacity to over 170 billion cubic meters by 2027, the narrow will become even more important for liquefied natural gas flows in the future, IG analysts warn. “As Europe is increasingly dependent on liquefied natural gas after the Russian-Ukraine war, the disorders in the liquefied natural gas market in Europe will become more noticeable,” the bank experts are afraid.
In addition, large quantities of chemical precursors based on crude oil are also transported through the passage. 3% of the global volume of containers and 2% of the global volume. As a result, JP Morgan analysts fear not only a significant increase in oil prices but also disorders in global supply chains.
The Greek economy at risk
As oil market analysts point out at newsit.gr, if Iran was actually closing or restricting navigation, this may be extremely worrying for the Greek economy. Greece is a pure importer of energy, especially slow and LNG. The cost of imports will be ejected, supplying a new wave of accuracy in fuel, electricity and transport. Already the price of unleaded is about 1.80 euros per liter, and Each additional rise by $ 10 in Brent increases domestic inflation by 0.3–0.4 percentage points. The 2.4% inflation prediction this year is directly precarious, and the growth target of 2.3% will be difficult to maintain if tourism, exports and consumption are affected at the same time.
In the crucial shipping industry, Greece has immediate operational and strategic interest. According to the latest available data, nearly 1,200 Greek -owned ships passed through the Ormuz In the first quarter of 2025. About 50 Greek ships are currently operating in the wider “dangerous zone” of the Persian Gulf and the Strait, according to the Ministry of Shipping. The position of the Greek authorities is clear: the protection of these ships is a dominant issue and is closely monitored in cooperation with European and international bodies.
In this context, NAFTA has issued Revised Operational Security Instructions to Greek Ships active in the area:
- Avoiding the ports of high -risk ports of Southern Iran and Yemeni coasts.
- Cruise at a minimum possible time in the close and use of predefined channels with accompanying warnings to the authorities.
- Enable Emergency Plan (SSAS) for any incident of a suspected approach or threat.
- Geographical location of 4 hours in MRCC Piraeus and the competent international authorities (UKMTO and IFC Singapore).
- Shipping review so that there are no crew members from high political risk countries to avoid targeting.
At the same time, ship insurance in the area is already burdened with high War Risk Surcharge, which in some cases reaches up to 60% of total costs, making chartered from the Middle East economically marginal or prohibitive.
According to newsit.gr, the Greek government is alleged to have raised the issue at European level, demanding coordinated diplomatic interventions and energy support clauses by the Commission in the event of a sharp increase in import costs. Economic Staff is already studying Scenarios of Energy subsidy and protection of vulnerable businesses (transport, agri -food sector, high consumption industries), if the crisis goes from theory to practice.
In conclusion, the closure of the Straits of Hormuz is not a mere ‘geopolitical potential’, but a factor that, if implemented, even in part, can overturn the balance of the whole Greek economy. And while everyone is missing the scenario, the seriousness with which the international authorities are confronted with and the Greek shipping community itself shows that the risk is real and anything but theoretical.