The United States’ unexpected attack on three basic nuclear facilities of Iran – on Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan – rearrange the balances in an already explosive Middle East In the midst of war, causing a wave of concern in markets oil.
After a week of extreme volatility in the oil market due to the Middle East war, the price of Brent was fired by 11%, and analysts warn that the rally has just begun.
According to Bloomberg, Washington’s air attack, which was described by Donald Trump as “stormy” and “disastrous for Iranian facilities”, revives fear of a wider military conflict, which could threaten critical energy. And the question is no longer if, but how Tehran will answer.
To $ 100?
The risk of finding the oil market facing new shock is real. As MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic points out, “if Iran responds to the same style, oil can move for $ 100.” The possibility of Iranian counterattack against US interests in the Middle East, as well as the possibility of interference with flows through the strait of the hormone – where it passes about 20% of the world daily oil supply – put the market in alert.
At the same time, traders are betting with frenzied moves on new turbulence: Bullish Call Options record, historically high premium risk premiums and one of the biggest futures in futures of the last decade. Since June 12, positions have been liquidated to 367 million barrels – a massive exit that testifies to the nervous pulse of markets.
Return to geopolitical uncertainty
Analysts agree that US involvement next to Israel is a turning point. As Rabobank’s Joe Delaura notes, “the market wanted clarity – and now it has it: the US is rebuilt militarily in the region.” According to him, the presence of the US fleet in the Persian may prevent the closure of the hormone, but the risk of new prices is now integrated: “We expect a range of $ 80-90 soon.”
For his part, PVM Oil’s Tamas Varga argues that only a generalized Iranian involvement on the oil front would lead to uncontrolled escalation. “It is not in the interest of anyone to make oil the next battlefield,” he said.
Petroleum, dollar and elections
Trump’s strategic choice to intervene directly in the Iranian nuclear program is also linked to internal political incentives in view of the upcoming elections. Price rally could be double -dangerous: both for fuel market and inflation, which he had committed to control.
The turmoil in energy markets can easily become a springboard for inflationary pressures in the US and internationally, creating a headache for central banks and consumers. In times of high uncertainty, even minor offering disorders are capable of causing recessionary trends – which reminds us of the 1970s crises.
The look at the narrow
Although oil exports from the Middle East remain unhindered, the dynamics of the situation leave no room for complacency. Iran appears to accelerate its exports – in an attempt to prevent any sanctions or exclusions – while leaving open the possibility of “adjustments” to its nuclear program.
With the market boiling with instability, the next 24 hours are expected to be decisive for whether the geopolitical thermometer will rise even more dangerously or if it will be calm.