In a period of apparent de -escalation in the Aegean, with Athens choosing mild rhetoric and “calm waters” policy, Ankara is strategically investing in North Africa, activating them. her backgrounds in Libya and attempting to “defrost” the illegal Turkish Memorandum. It is an agreement that Greece and the international community consider legally invalid, but Turkey seeks to reactivate and give it institutional status, while enhancing its geostrategic presence in the Eastern Mediterranean.
At the same time, the former prime ministers of the country – in public or in private positions – have repeatedly pointed out that the soothing strategy is not performing. The Declaration of Athens, which provided for the Greece -Turkey approach in the context of good neighborly, has become Double -use tool for Recep Tayyip Erdogan: On the one hand, he appears as a West’s interlocutor on defense and immigration policy issues, on the other hand he intensifies the challenges in the Greek EEZ, Thrace and now in Libya, methodically enhancing the narrative of the “blue homeland”.
Tripoli adopts Turkish rhetoric – reaction to Greek energy plans
The new challenge came from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Libyan Transitional Government, which accused Greece of violating its sovereign rights on the occasion of hydrocarbon research concessions south of Crete. Tripoli’s statements are probably a product of motivation – if not command – of Ankara, which feels that Greek energy movements threaten its strategic narrative in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The government of Abdelhamid Dbaiba, although supposedly transitional, has maintained close ties with Turkey and consistently executes Turkish aspirations in the region. The insistence of international organizations to recognize Tripoli as a legal government, despite the delay in holding elections and the absence of political unification with Haftar’s eastern Libya, provides Ankara the opportunity to consolidate its position in “legitimate” ways.
Time with Turkish penetration – from Tripoli to Benghazi
Turkey, however, is not confined to Western Libya. Ankara is now investing in eastern Libya, approaching General Haftar. Following the deadly floods in Derna, Turkey provided humanitarian aid and financial support, while Haftar and staff of his staff visited Ankara, opening a communication channel.
This shift serves Erdogan, who seeks to talk to all sides in Libya, enhancing his bargaining power and giving more “legalization” to the illegal Memorandum of Turkey – Libya. Haftar is looking for allies to maintain his power. Its traditional partners – Egypt, Emirates and unfortunately Greece – have been removed. Thus, it turns to Turkey, which has a steady presence and military bases in the area.
Greek answer and strategic structural deficits
In Athens, the response to the Libyan objections came through the Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis, who reiterated from the House of Representatives that Greece was exercising its legal sovereign rights and announced an imminent diplomatic mission in Tripoli and Benghazi in early July. However, Greece often moves retrospectively. There is no strategic depth or a coherent policy on the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Turkish Media: Ankara “bets” in Haftar for the approval of the Turkish Memorandum
This deficit makes it difficult to draw effective countermeasures against Turkish multi -speed diplomacy. Greece must threaten with suspension of any European aid to Libya. As long as Tripoli relies on Turkey for security, it will act as an Ankara satellite, as Kostas Karamanlis and Antonis Samaras from the War Museum have warned.