A new common study of the International Labor Organization (ILO) and the National Research Institute of Polish (NASK) finds that 1 in 4 positions work worldwide it is potentially exposed to Genai but that transformation and not replacement is the most likely result.
The study, presented on May 20 and bears the title of General AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure, introduces the most detailed global evaluation to date in the way Genai can reshape the world of work. The index provides a unique and discolored snapshot of how artificial intelligence could transform professions and employment in all countries, combining almost 30,000 professional duties with ratification by experts, graduation with the help of artificial intelligence and harmful.
“We went beyond the theory to create a tool based on real jobs. Combining human insight, evaluation by experts and artificial intelligence models, we have created a reproducible method that helps countries evaluate the danger and accurately respond, “said Pawel Gmyrek, a senior researcher of ILO and leader.
The main findings of the report include:
- The new “exposure graders”, which groups the professions according to their level of exposure to genetic artificial intelligence, help policy makers distinguish between jobs at high risk of complete automation and those who are more likely to evolve through transformation.
- 25% of world employment falls under occupations that may be exposed to the genetic AI, with higher rates in high -income countries (34%).
- The exposure between women is still significantly higher. In high -income countries, occupations at the highest risk of automation accounts for 9.6% of women’s employment – in stark contrast to 3.5% of these jobs between men.
- Employee jobs face the highest exposure of all, due to Genai’s theoretical ability to automate many of their work. However, Genai’s expanding skills lead to an increased exposure of certain highly digitized jobs in media, software and finance.
- Complete automation of work, however, remains limited, as many work, although more effective, still require human participation. The study highlights the possibly divergent paths for occupations that are common in fast digital transformations – such as software developers – and for those in which limited digital skills may have a more negative impact.
- Politics that guide digital transitions will be a top factor in determining the degree to which workers can be maintained in occupations that are transformed as a result of artificial intelligence, as well as the way in which this transformation affects the quality of jobs.
“This indicator helps identify areas where Genai is likely to have the greatest impact so that countries can prepare and protect workers better. Our next step is to apply this new indicator to Poland’s detailed workforce data, “said Marek Troszyński, a NASK expert and one of the co-authors of the new document.
A policy tool for transitions without exclusion
The Ilo-Nask study stresses that the data reflects the possible exposure rather than the actual loss of jobs. Technological restrictions, infrastructure shortages and skills deficiencies mean that the application will vary largely by country and sector. Critically, the authors point out that the effect of Genai is more likely to transform jobs than to eliminate them.
The report calls on governments, employers and workers’ organizations to participate in social dialogue and to form preventive, without exclusion of strategies that can enhance the productivity and quality of jobs, especially in exposed areas.
“It is easy to lose in the advertising campaign of artificial intelligence. What we need is clarity and framework. This tool helps countries around the world to evaluate the possible report and prepare their workplace for a fairer digital future, “explained Janine Berg, a senior ILO economist.
This study marks the first in a series of Ilo-Nask publications that focus on Genai and the future of work. The forthcoming reports will explore the national impact on the labor market and provide technical plans to support policy responses, especially on emerging and growing economies.