The China -US Agreement to reduce commercial dictatorial will lead to raising freight prices as companies are rushing to use this 90 -day grace period for transport merchandise through the Pacific Ocean.
The rapid escalation of duties in recent weeks, as the trade war has flesh and bone, had caused a sharp fall in goods missions, with Chinese exports to the US decreasing by 21% last month and imports decreased by almost 14%.
The AP Moller-Maersk Group giant last week calculated the fall of April in the volume of transport from China to the US to 30 to 40%. This seems to have continued in May, with the number of air freight flights receding in the week until May 11 – before Monday’s agreement was announced.
However, an unexpectedly emphatic reduction in tension after the weekend talks is now expected to cause demand and prices recovery – a jump that charterers and analysts say it will worsen from the start of the busiest period for the sector, possibly many times.
With Chinese suppliers already returning, even before the agreement is announced, fare prices on the Pacific route increased from $ 2,000 per equivalent unit of forty feet in mid -April to about $ 2,500 this weekaccording to a note by Jefferies Tuesday (13.5.2025). The acceleration of this reversal will be a relief.
Maritime containers are fighting with the sharp fall of the fares, approaching the dead point for some spot trips. The global reference for container transport has been just over $ 2,076 per unit of equivalent forty feet last week, according to the worldwide Drewry World Container Index index. This is the lowest level since December 2023.
“The container sector is positioned for a substantial improvement in spot prices on two fundamental fronts: the repetition of normal volumes and the start of the peak season, which typically begins in July,” wrote Jefferies. “Given the narrower capacity in the hypernearic, oceanic carriers are in place of the driver to push fare prices significantly higher.”
Some transporters – who are often the first to feel the impact of such sharp movements – say that the trade truce is a move in the right direction. “We hope that it can lay the foundations for the parties to also reach a permanent agreement that can create the long -term predictability that our customers need,” a Maersk spokesman said. “Right now, our customers have acquired 90 days of clarity with reduced duties and we are working hard to help them make the most of this window.”
Chinese exports to the US tend to start the year at a low pace before growing during the summer in the northern hemisphere and culminating in September, before the holiday season at the end of the year. The slowdown in the coming months after that was not the case in 2024, possibly because the companies went on to market the duties threatened by President Donald Trump as soon as he took over his duties in January.