His main opponent all these years It was and remains ‘no’; After the departure of Alexis TsiprasMitsotakis maintains a double -digit lead for the prime minister and all of his aspiring competitors write single -digit rates. Due to SYRIZA’s multiplication, PASOK is an official opposition in Parliamentbut in the polls it is over – and even clearly – the navigation of freedom.
In voting estimate, ND It is now on the level of last Septemberjust above the European election rates, at 29%-30%depending on the measurement, as It has fallen sharply “the fever of the Tempi”.
On the contrary, PASOK closes a four -month constant fall, SYRIZA a quarter of damage and only Zoe Konstantopoulou has overflowed her percentages, but without threatening the ruling party. Difficult times for opposition …
The turn to the center
The Mitsotakis election to the leadership of the ND He marked a velvety rupture with the Karamanlian heritage of the New Democracy in combination with a shift in the center: after all, his narrow staff in those intra -party elections, with executives such as Kyriakos Pierrakakis, had nothing to do with Antonis Samaras.
Mitsotakis did nothing but join the ND umbrella. The moderate right -wingers who voted for his father and the modernists who chose Kostas Simitis. The adhesive was the common pursuit of defeating SYRIZA and Tsipras policiessomething that then evolved into a reformist alliance, largely homogenizing his party.
Budgetary room
At the same time, Mitsotakis had the – missed in the years of the Memorandum – a privilege of moving without fiscal commitments. At first because of the pandemic and then because of the tax overdose brought about by inflation due to the war in Ukraine and the digital fight against tax evasion. After 9 years of misery, Mitsotakis was the first prime minister to was able to to announce tax cuts and wage increases – In short, the return to a form of regularity.
At the same time, Mitsotakis acquired personal followers: In all measurements from 2016 to the present day concentrates significantly higher rates than his partywhile Nikos Androulakis, both after his first intra -party victory, in 2021 and after the second, in 2024, barely gathers PASOK’s 40% of the question about the most suitable for the prime minister, without the slightest penetration of voters in other party voters.
The multi -lecturer of the candidate prime minister It is – for all parties – the number 1 weapon in the battle for the first. At this juncture, only Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Zoe Konstantopoulou have a broader appeal, but for different reasons. The President of the ND It is chosen for the prime minister by broader forces – for example, by the “yes” tank in the 2015 referendum, even with the logic of the “Little Bad”. On the contrary, the president of the Freedom Freight is selected as “the voice of protest” on all issues, on the occasion of Tempi.
PASOK President had a chance in the fall of 2024 – And he lost it very soon: having emerged in most polls as the most popular political leader shortly after his re -election, he refused to play in the game of consensus, as he had done many months before the case of the establishment of non -state foreign universities. He said – without even being asked – that he would not co -exist with the New Democracy just to respond to Socrates Famello who had charged him with a “consensual opposition”. Afterwards, some of his executives attempted to put in the game of the “Progressive Government” up to Yiannis Varoufakis – and somewhere there were lost for PASOK by the central voters who began returning to the New Democracy.
The second wave of fleeing began in late January – this time was the left -wing voters who migrated to Zoe Konstantopoulou’s party, which won all the impressions of the massive rallies for the Tempe tragedy. The Androulakis move to include the signatures of the cruise in the distrust proposal against the government gave Zoe Konstantopoulou, who had adopted all the conspiracy theories for Tempi by “charging” them in PASOK.
Intramural
Both Nikos Androulakis and Stefanos Kasselakis, as well as Socrates Famellos, are confined to a first “within the walls”, and when there is no natural leader of the site, voters tend to seek the hidden paper that will overthrow the situation: Alexis Tsipras is also attributed to this trend, which however did not continue, as the rates of the current president of the Republic of the Republic from the time of his election to the period of his departure by SYRIZA remained very low in the electorate.
Alexis Tsipras’ rebranding, however, seems to be fruitful – for example, 26% say they see a positive “total return” of the former prime minister. However, experienced politicians estimate on the basis of similar cases of the past that most likely if this is done, the poll voting will fall immediately to 12% -13% and then reach one-digit numbers.
On the other hand, both Nikos Androulakis and Socrates Famellos have their intra -party dominance fresh and can only be disputed after national elections. It is characteristic that both in PASOK and SYRIZA today is dominated by the “silence of the lambs” – for example, both Haris Doukas and Pavlos Polakis, who had claimed the leadership, are sufficient for the side of the leadership without showing a willingness to push for corrective moves.
To the right of a pansy of parties totaling 20% but have a war relationship with each other, ND. It is today the most homogenized party of the Center and the moderate right: in fact, the detachment of Panos Kammenos from 2012 and Kyriakos Velopoulos in 2015 served as an additional alibi for central voters who moved massively to ND. In the 2019 elections, when the late Fofi Gennimata denied the election of the State in Vangelis Venizelos.
Gennimata’s move was aimed at just the opposite – hoped that PASOK’s voters, who had moved to SYRIZA in the 2012 and 2015 elections, would be deprived of the removal of Venizelos and repatriated. With the 32% received in 2019, SYRIZA proved to be too early for such a conversion – and when PASOK came in, it received very little in the region only, thereby remaining a “province party” with nostalgic references to Papandreism.
Fofi Gennimata received PASOK at 4.7% and managed to double its strength within 4 years, having to face bilateral losses – both to ND. by Mitsotakis as well as to SYRIZA Tsipras.
To a large extent, this is still the case today. It is noteworthy that in the question for post -election collaborations, PASOK voters appear divided – one side looks to ND. and the other to create a progressive front.
Party ‘2 in 1’
PASOK could solve the problem of ‘2 in 1′ party as the bipartisanship was working and it was in power: in the eight -year Simitis it was obvious that the modernists were at another wavelength by Akis Tsochatzopoulos’ supporters, but the unity at both the top and the base were secured. For 15 years, all this is over, but the division remains.
In SYRIZA things are even worse, as the party made by Alexis Tsipras by housing executives such as Olga Gerovasilis with Panagiotis Lafazanis and Dimitris Tzanakopoulos and Stefanos Kasselakis dissolved in the exists he has been steadily involved in single -digit rates.
Since the summer of 2019, the New Democracy has ruled undisturbed. In many cases, SYRIZA thought it had reached “the beginning of the end” – especially When the tragedy of Tempi happened Two months before the launch of the election campaign for the national elections of 2023. Finally, in the second ballots, ND It reached 40.5%, as Alexis Tsipras’ steel moves, which said he would even make a government with the … KKE, led the majority to Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Indeed, those elections may be a guide for the next, despite the expected great deterioration of the New Democracy.
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